Santa Monica Beach State Park California Weather Forecast Discussion

544
FXUS66 KLOX 151046
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
346 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...15/341 AM.
Cooler than normal conditions will linger into tonight, but a
drying trend will establish through the rest of the week. A light
Santa Ana pattern will develop Thursday and Friday that will
bring much warmer temperatures and some locally breezy northeast
winds. Dry weather will continue into next week but with cooler
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/304 AM.
Shower activity has all but departed the area. Cannot rule out a
stray shower through dawn but over all its going to be a dry day.
A little impulse moved over Srn LA county last evening and very
early morning. Most areas did not receive anything over a tenth of
an inch, but the Palisades Burn scar did pick up a half inch to
two thirds of an inch of extra rain. Fortunately the rain rate was
low enough that only minor flooding occurred. The rest of the day
will be a sunny with increasing northerly flow aloft around the
back of the departing upper low. Cloud free and rain free the area
will warm 5 to 10 degrees which will bring max temps up into the
mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts/vlys. These warmer highs are
still 8 to 16 degrees blo normal.
Dry conditions with mostly clear skies will continue on Thursday.
A weak Santa Ana wind event will set up with some northerly flow
aloft and 3 to 5 mb of offshore flow at the sfc. Do not see any
advisory level gusts developing. Still, there will be some gusty
north to northeast winds in the morning across the Santa Ana prone
areas of LA/VTA counties. The offshore flow and plenty of
sunshine will bring another 5 to 10 degrees of warming to the 4
county area. Look for max temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
vlys.
The offshore flow peaks on Friday and there may be a little
northeasterly upper level wind support as well. The peak wind
gusts through the Santa Ana wind corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to
Mugu NAS) could reach low end advisory levels but will likely
remain just under. An additional 3 to 6 degrees of warming will
bring some sites up to a couple degrees above normal. Most sites,
however, will end up a couple of degrees under normal.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/113 AM.
A little ridge pops up from the SE on Saturday and hgts rise to
584 dam. At the sfc there will be only weak onshore flow to the
east and offshore flow from the north. The marine inversion should
remain absent and skies will be sunny. Max temps will rise 2 or 3
degrees away form the immediate coasts. This warming will push
max temps close to normal.
On Sunday Srn CA will remain under the weak ridge pushing up from
the SE. A cut off upper low will be spinning harmlessly to the SW
while Nrn CA and the PACNW will be under a a fairly vigorous
trof. Onshore trends and the subsidence from the ridge will
combine to develop a marine inversion as well as a coastal stratus
deck. In response to the newly formed marine layer and switch to
onshore flow, max temps will drop 2 to 3 degrees across most of
the area.
Not the best mdl agreement for Monday but the general consensus
is that there will be a weak trof passage and an increase in both
the marine layer clouds and the onshore flow. This would result
in a noticeable cool down of 3 to 6 degrees. There are, however,
a few solutions that show ridging and some warming.
Mdl disagreement worsens on Tuesday with the EC sweeping a dry cut
off low over the area and the GFS favoring a weak inside slider.
The GFS favors decent offshore flow, while the EC shows near
neutral flow. What ever the outcome it will be dry with below
normal temps (less so if the windier GFS verifies)
&&
.AVIATION...15/1033Z.
Around 09Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.
Moderate confidence in current forecast. There is a slight chance
of LIFR to IFR conditions at coastal terminals north of KNTD and
KPRB through 16Z. Ceilings at or below 6000 feet are possible
after 20Z.
KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of ceilings at or below 6000
feet through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the period. There is a 20 percent chance of east winds 7 to 9
knots through 16Z.
KBUR...There is a 30 percent chance of ceilings at or below 6000
feet through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the period.
&&
.MARINE...15/323 AM.
Marginal Small Craft Advisory seas will linger into late this
morning beyond 10 NM from the Central Coast shore and south to San
Nicolas Island.
For the waters northwest through southwest of the Channel Islands
and outside the Southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, there is a moderate to likely (40 to 70
percent) chance of SCA winds developing this afternoon and
tonight, increasing to a high to imminent (50 to 80 percent)
chance on Thursday afternoon and night. Then, winds and seas
should drop below SCA levels through Sunday.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate to
likely (40 to 70 percent) chance of SCA winds developing this
afternoon and tonight, highest across the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel. Then, winds and seas should drop below SCA
levels through Sunday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion