Sarben, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

895
FXUS63 KLBF 110542
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances will remain mainly isolated and over far western
  portions of the of the forecast area through Thursday night.
  The threat for thunderstorms will expand eastward Friday into
  the weekend.
- Temperatures over the next 7 days have a high probability to
  be above normal for this time of year. For reference, average
  high temperatures typically range from 80 to 83 degrees over
  the next 7 days.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
H5 analysis this morning had high pressure over western Texas.
A ridge extended north of this feature into north central
Canada. West of this feature, closed low pressure was located
over northern California with a trough extending south to
approximately 300 miles off the coast of southern California.
East of the ridge, a shortwave trough was present from the
western Great Lakes south into the lower Ohio Valley. South-
southwesterly flow extended from southern California, into the
intermountain west. Within this flow, shortwaves were noted over
Idaho and Montana. Another shortwave was noted over Central
Kansas this morning. Patchy fog and low cloudiness had developed
overnight from southwestern into central and northeastern
portions of the forecast area. This cloudiness and fog had
burned off by noontime across the area. Skies were mainly clear
this afternoon across western and north central Nebraska and 2
PM CT temperatures ranged from 81 O`Neill to 86 degrees at
Gordon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Tonight through Thursday night...Low end precipitation
chances tonight and again Thursday night are the main forecast
challenges in the short term. For tonight, weakly forced convection
over the front ranges of Colorado and eastern Wyoming, will attempt
to track to the northeast into western Nebraska into the early
evening hours. As this activity tracks northeast, it will lift into
a H5 ridge axis, increasing hts. aloft, and increasing stability.
However, locations in the far northwest will see some limited
instability for a short duration during the late afternoon and early
evening hours (mainly before sunset) and couldn`t totally rule out
an isolated thunderstorm threat. Elsewhere, overnight there will be
a fog threat, mainly over portions of southwestern into portions of
central Nebraska. This is supported by the latest SREF visby
probabilities < 3SM which are in the 25 to 45 percent range tonight.
However, surface visby`s in the HRRR and CONSShort are less
optimistic for fog tonight. Given the fact we have been dry today,
decided to limit mention of fog to patchy. On Thursday afternoon,
another round of convection will develop over the central Rockies
into eastern Wyoming. With the ridge axis being displaced a tad
further east Thursday, the threat for storms should shift further
east, encompassing the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills
Thursday afternoon/evening. Current thoughts on POPs are to run
slight chances west of a line from Valentine to Grant. As for the
severe threat, it appears to be greatest generally over the eastern
Panhandle and northwestern Sandhills. In those areas, steep mid
level lapse rates seem to favor a large hail threat.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The broad trough of low pressure over the western CONUS will
migrate east into the intermountain west Friday. Ridging over
the central and southern plains, will migrate east into the
Arklatex and Ozarks. Resultant instability will increase from
north central into southwestern Nebraska Friday afternoon with
the greatest instability once again over the panhandle and
northwestern Nebraska. On Saturday, the upper level trough will
lift onto the high plains of the western Dakotas, eastern
Montana, eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The period
from Saturday night into Sunday appears to be the greatest
threat for precipitation across the forecast area over the next
7 days. This is supported by the ECMWF ensembles, which almost
all of them have measurable pcpn for the FA during this period.
After dry conditions Monday, a secondary threat for storms will
arrive toward the middle of next week as another upper level
trough of low pressure enters the Intermountain west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period outside
of early morning fog potential.
Southeasterly winds persist through the overnight and are likely
to remain fairly steady around 5-10 knots with occasional higher
gusts at VTN. Southeasterly flow will usher in richer low-level
moisture which in turn could lead to some patchy fog concerns.
Given non-calm winds and clouds aloft, not expecting dense fog
though MVFR visibilities appear plausible.
After daybreak Thursday, winds quickly increase and any
fog/low-level stratus will dissipate quickly. Gusts will
quickly climb to around 25 knots by midday and persist for much
of the latter half of the forecast period. Earlier concerns
about afternoon convection have waned and so opted to remove
VCTS from VTN. In the evening, more thunderstorms will form west
of the terminals and may move in late though confidence in this
is too low to include at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion