Sargents School Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS65 KPUB 082018
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming and drying conditions will persist over the plains, while
increasing heavy rain and some thunder moves into the mountains.
- Excessive rainfall risk maximizes across the Eastern San Juan
  mountains Friday night and Saturday with localized flash
  flooding possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Precipitable waters continue to increase across the Desert SW as
southwest flow aloft continues to advect 200+% of normal TWPs
northeastward ahead of hurricane Priscilla. Blended TPW from Polar
Satellite imagery already shows values of 150% of normal spreading
into our southern mountains. Area radars show some weak convection
developing across the southern mountains, San Luis Valley and Raton
Mesa region, though CAPE values under 500 J/kg should keep these on
the weak side.
Moisture continues to increase tonight into Thursday with dew points
rising into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the western mountains
by Tue afternoon. Lows tonight across the interior valleys will
start to warm, with most locations staying above freezing aside from
the higher peaks and the upper Arkansas River Valley around KLXV. A
round of showers will spread into the southwest mountains overnight
with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
as leading shortwave energy lifts across the four corners region.
Although widespread rainfall amounts are not predicted to be all
that heavy yet, precipitable waters approaching 200% of normal could
yield some locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall Thursday into Friday
will be the first round of wetting rainfall heading into the heavier
QPF amounts expected later in the period. For the remainder of
southern CO on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will be more
isolated and confined to the mountain areas.  The southeast plains
will remain dry and warm with temperatures staying above normal.
-KT
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
The upper ridge will continue shoving east as we head towards the
weekend. Temperatures remain above normal for at least a few more
days as the trough axis out west deepens and moves onshore. A cold
front will be forced down across the plains late weekend into early
next week, dropping highs over the plains by 10 degrees or so.
Additionally, precipitation will become more widespread across the
higher terrain, with QPF continuing to trend upwards along with
available moisture. We could be seeing heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms over portions of the Continental Divide, and possibly
some flash flooding concerns. At this time, little to no snow is
expected due to lingering warm temperatures. The moisture will be
increased further due to the tropical cyclone remnants off the west
coast of Mexico, though deterministic guidance still varies a bit on
where to send the main energy from the storm.
Model solutions diverge with the overall pattern further into next
week, but overall a series of troughs is anticipated to develop over
the CONUS, giving us cooler, wetter, and generally more active
weather through the long-term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with winds
increasing from the south to southeast at KCOS and KPUB with
gusts to around 15-20 kt at times in the afternoon. KALS will
see winds increase out of the southwest with gusts up to 24 kts
during the afternoon. Best chance for -SHRA/-TSRA will be at
KALS in the 22-01z window. Otherwise, expect light diurnally
driven winds overnight with an increasing mid to high deck in
the afternoon.  -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion