Sarita, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

269
FXUS64 KBRO 090333
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1033 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms continues,
   maximizing along the seabreeze boundary during the afternoon
   and minimizing overnight. Lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds
   are possible within the deepest and strongest of convection.
- Afternoon heat indices of 100-107 degrees F and mostly minor
   (level 1 of 4) heat risks persist across deep south Texas, yet
   ranging from minor to moderate (level 2 of 4) for portions of
   the coastal counties and lower Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A combination of daily seabreeze boundaries, diurnal instability and
slight divergence aloft is expected to continue to result in daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms across deep south Texas
throughout the rest of this week and into the beginning of next,
maximizing during the afternoon and minimizing overnight. Today,
there is a medium to likely (40% to 70%) chance of rain for the
coastal counties, eastern and southern portions of the northern
ranchlands as well as the mid Rio Grande Valley, with the greatest
chances across the lower Rio Grande Valley along and east of I-69 E,
where lingering surface convergence and elevated PWAT values reside
in association with a weak frontal boundary stalled near the
southern border. Meanwhile, PoP`s across the Rio Grande Plains and
western portions of the northern ranchlands range from less than 15%
to 30%, due to increased subsidence aloft from an expanding area of
mid-level ridging, centered over western Texas. Tomorrow and onward,
probabilities of rain become more widespread across the region as
the frontal boundary mixes out, leaving easterly onshore winds
leading to diurally-driven convection along the seabreeze boundary.
As the mid-level high pressure slowly moves north of the CWA
throughout the remainder of the work week and expands further over
the Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, chances of rain
decrease from a medium to likely (40-70%) tomorrow through Friday to
mostly a low to medium (30% to 40%) chance over the weekend, with
elevated chances again next week as subsidence decreases aloft.
Daily probabilities are highest along and east of US-281/I-69 C
during the afternoon, where lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds
are possible within the deepest and strongest of convection.
Increased cloud coverage each day is likely to keep temperatures
average for this time of year with high temperatures near and along
the coast in the mid 80`s and nearly all of inland deep south Texas
in the 90`s, ranging from the mid/upper 90`s across the Rio Grande
Plains to low/mid 90`s elsewhere. Despite enhanced moisture from
rain, afternoon heat indices of generally 100-107 degF, limited to
the Rio Grande Valley and the coastal counties, is expected to
result in mostly a minor heat risk across the CWA. Portions of the
coastal counties are likely to experience minor to moderate heat
risks due heightened humidity brought inland via light onshore
flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Scattered VFR to broken MVFR ceilings and moderate (around 10-13
knots, gusting to around 18-21 knots) northeasterly winds are
expected to continue for a few hours this evening, leading into
sunset, before becoming light and variable later tonight. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected overnight, though brief periods of
MVFR ceilings and visibility may be possible at KHRL and KBRO as
additional development of showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms,
may continue. Moderate northeasterly winds and PROB30`s resulting
from increasing probabilities of showers and thunderstorms resume
at all terminals by tomorrow afternoon as lingering nearby
moisture generates convection along the seabreeze boundary.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Favorable marine conditions continue as mainly gentle to moderate
easterly winds and slight to moderate seas prevail along with medium
to likely chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  90  77  91 /  60  70  60  70
HARLINGEN               73  92  73  93 /  40  60  30  60
MCALLEN                 77  94  76  96 /  30  50  20  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  95  71  97 /  20  30  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  81  88 /  70  70  70  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  89  77  91 /  60  60  50  60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion