Savoonga, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXAK69 PAFG 142310
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
310 PM AKDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet and persistent weather pattern will continue over
Northern Alaksa early this week, with no active watches, warnings,
or advisories over land or marine areas at this time. Skies will
remain partly to mostly cloudy as a series of shortwave troughs
lifting north across Eastern Alaska work to support isolated to
scattered showers further north and east as dry conditions prevail
across western Alaska. Temperatures will see a warming trend over
the next few days across the Interior and Western Alaska with
highs in the 50s/60s expected, warmest around Fairbanks.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cloudy skies with isolated rain showers early this week.
- Breezy NE winds over the higher terrain Monday afternoon through
  Tuesday.
- Steady rain likely in the Eastern Interior accompanied by a
  front moving north from the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday.
- North winds through Alaska Range Passes gusting to 25 mph on
  Monday followed by south winds gusting to 35 mph Tuesday
  morning.
- Below normal temperatures (40s/50s) will creep back up to near
  normal starting Monday and Tuesday (50s/60s).
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet weather with a mixture of sunshine/clouds today and into
  next week.
- Isolated showers and pockets of light rain around the Western
  Alaska Range and Western Seward Peninsula today.
- Dry weather will continue for much of next week with
  temperatures warming up to near normal (upper 40s to mid 50s).
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Isolated snow showers through Monday morning, Atigun Pass and
  eastern Brooks Range. Little to no accumulation expected.
- Light snow and rain along the Chukchi Sea Coast with an little
  to no accumulations in the coastal communities.
- Increasing NE winds Tuesday night and Wednesday across the
  entire area. Sustained winds will be strongest (30-35 mph)
  across the Western Arctic Coast later in the week.
- Temperatures are near to slightly below normal but gradually
  rise to near normal (30s to low 40s) by midweek.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
Confidence remains high through the short term forecast period
with little in the way of impactful weather expected. A look at
the overall pattern at 500 mb continues to show a broad trough
over the western half of the state, a 530 decameter low near
Utqiagvik slowly lifting north, and a 537 decameter low in the
Gulf of Alaska slowly deepening as it moves northeast. A series of
weak shortwave troughs ejected from the low in the Gulf will lift
north over Eastern Alaska through Tuesday, supporting isolated
showers farther east with light precipitation amounts expected
overall. By Wednesday, these shortwaves will begin tapping into
more tropical moisture as an atmospheric river gets caught in the
flow of the low in the Gulf of Alaska. While there will be
moisture blocked by the Chugach and Wrangell Mountains, we will
need to keep an eye on the potential for moderate and locally
heavy precipitation amounts across the eastern half of the state
toward the middle of next week as a closed cutoff low lifts north.
The latest GFS/ECMWF ensembles have shown a farther west shift
towards Fairbanks for precipitation which will need to be
monitored over the coming days.
As a result of the passage of these series of shortwaves, winds
will see an increase through Alaska Range passes with northerly
gusts to 25 mph on Monday followed by south winds gusts to 35 mph
on Tuesday morning. Farther north, a building surface high will
bring increasing winds late Tuesday into Wednesday across the
Arctic Coast, strongest farther west. These winds will remain
elevated through the weekend, expanding in coverage to Western
Alaska as winds prevail out of the N/NE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will see a warming trend across the Interior and
Eastern Alaska early this week as highs rebound into the 50s/60s.
Afternoon RHs around that 40-50% range are expected across the
Upper Tanana River Valley starting Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
showers with light winds will also continue through midweek as
precipitation amounts overall remain light. No thunderstorm
activity is expected at this time over the coming days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday.
As a stronger shortwave/cutoff closed low continues to track
north over the eastern half of the state for Thursday, showers
will continue farther north and east as a 535 decameter low begins
moving east through the Aleutians. As a result, precipitation
chances will increase around the Yukon Delta and Western Interior
as winds continue to remain elevated across the North Slope and
Western Alaska out of the N/NE. This is due to a tightened
pressure gradient between the low to the south and a surface high
over eastern Russia, supporting sustained winds around 15-35 mph
across this broad region. Ensemble models remain in good agreement
taking the main circulation in the Aleutians east into the Gulf
of Alaska later in the week, allowing moisture to continue to
build into the Interior and Eastern Alaska with isolated to
scattered showers expected to finish out the week. Precipitation
amounts throughout this time frame are expected to remain light
overall given the southerly track of the low, with highest totals
remaining further south along coastal regions. During this time
frame, temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend across
northern Alaska into next weekend as winds predominantly remain
out of the N/NE.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Northeast winds across waters of the Western Beaufort Sea through
the Bering Strait will see an increase to Gale Force winds Tuesday
into Wednesday especially near Point Hope, remaining elevated
through the rest of the week.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&
$$
MacKay

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion