Sawdust Trail, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

061
FXUS61 KAKQ 261101
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front moves into the area today, with an
upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend. This
will bring more unsettled conditions late this week through the
weekend. Impacts from any tropical development would be Monday
into Tuesday if they occur. However, uncertainity remains high
regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning.
-Additional showers and storms are possible later this afternoon
bringing heavy rain and isolated Flash Flooding across the SE VA/ NE
NC.
Early morning weather analysis shows a broad 500mb trough axis
centered over the Mississippi River Vally. At the surface, a stalled
cold front is located over the appalachians mountains. Along and
ahead of this front, a warm and humid airmass is still in place with
low to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Showers and
thunderstorms as of 230am continue across the southern portion of
the CWA. These showers are expected to persist for the next couple
of hours before dying as recent meso analysis shows a cap building
back into place as well as instability lowering as day time heating
was lost. However, there still is enough instability for these
storms to have a brief strong wind gusts. Through the rest of this
morning cloud cover and showers will persist but storms will dwindle
and temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 60s inland and
lower 70s along the coast.
Over the course of today the trough to the west will split as a
shortwave passes just to our NE and a closed low is progged to
develop over the Mid South. While at the surface, the stalled cold
front will slowly nudge southeast and stall across central and
southeast Virginia. Ahead of the front PW values are progged to be
around 2" across south central and SE VA/ NE NC.  Latest CAMS
continue to back on showers and thunderstorms developing during the
day. However, if these showers and storms develop they will pose the
risk of heavy down pours and possible localized flash flooding in
poor drainage and urban areas. The highest confidence where these
showers develop in the afternoon are across SE VA/NC NC. Through
Friday night the upper cutoff low will continue to move towards the
area. As it does it will eventually allow for more southerly winds
which will advect additional moisture across the area. PW values
across south central and SE VA/NE NC will climb between 2-2.1".
Additional scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop
bringing heavy rain. Recent CAMS have shown isolated pockets of 1 to
2" of rain associated with these stronger storms. WPC has maintained
a marginal ERO for the southern half of the area for this afternoon
and into tonight. Temperatures for today will not be as warm with
highs in the low to middle 80s and lows will drop into the middle to
upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Another round of localized Flooding is possible Saturday
- Shower chances continue on Sunday with less in the way of thunder
chances.
Through Saturday the upper low will be just to the west but will
maintain southerly flow over our area. At the surface, the stalled
cold front will slowly push east but will stall out again over south
central amd SE VA/NE NC allowing for additional development of
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening of Saturday. PW
values will maintain themselves from Friday night and will continue
to be between 2 to 2.2" through the day. This environment will be
conducive of any strong shower and storm to produce heavy rain fall
that could potentially lead to localized Flash Flooding. Especially
for already saturated ares from the previous night. Latest 00z HREF
has shown a broad area of a 30% chance of 3 inches of rain within an
hour across south central and SE VA/ NE NC. WPC has upgraded to a
slight risk ERO for most of the area. Temperatures for Saturday will
cool down and be more pleasant with highs ranging from the lower 70s
across the NW to the lower 80s across the SE. Shower chances
continue Saturday night/Sunday as the closed low lingers just to our
W/SW. With the low-level increasing a little bit out of the NE,
expect it to be more stable on Sunday with less in the way of
thunder chances (but cloudy and showery throughout the day). Highs
only reach the mid-upper 70s with areal avg QPF of 0.25-0.5". WPC
once again has a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for the entire
area on Sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues late this weekend into early next
  week.
- Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major  hurricane
well offshore and AL94 has a 80% chance of   development through 48
hours and 90% through 7 days.
Through early next week the upper closed low will continue to remain
over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. While to the north a decently
strong high pressure builds just SE of Quebec and Ontario. Further
complications arise from AL94 and TS Humberto (forecast to become a
major hurricane by late Sunday), how these systems interact with
each other, and how much the trough interacts with AL94. The recent
00z guidance continues to have a large spread in terms of both
track/intensity with respect to AL94, there is increasing confidence
that there will be some degree of tropical development off the SE
CONUS coast by Monday morning. If there are direct impacts, and if
they do occur, it would likely be from late Monday through late
Tuesday. Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances
will continue through early next week. Depending on the track of the
system, locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of
the area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain
already expected this weekend. By the middle of the week, high
pressure builds father south with fairly strong CAA expected. Breezy
NE winds are likely by Wed/Wed night as the gradient between the
high to our north and any low to our S/SW/SE increases. Also, drier
wx should finally return by Wed or Wed night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 702 AM EDT Friday...
A mix of flight restrictions have been noted across all
terminals this morning. The showers and storms have finally
pushed offshore but some light to moderate showers remain across
SE VA. These showers could cause additional flight restrictions
primarily across PHF and ORF. Some patchy fog has developed
across RIC and SBY but will soon dissipate as the sun rises.
CIGs gradually rise to MVFR by midday today and likely improve
to VFR later this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible across SE VA/NE NC late this afternoon/ evening. With
some moderate confidence have added prob30s to ORF,ECG, PHF, and
RIC.
Widespread showers likely at all of the terminals on Saturday.
Occasional sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of showers
lingers into Sunday and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and storms
today and Saturday.
- Deteriorating boating conditions and building NE winds are likely
from for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
forecast and the latest information from the National Hurricane
Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Tropical Disturbance
94L.
Latest analysis reveals ~1000mb over northern New England into
Atlantic Canada, with high pressure to the west and northwest over
the Ohio Valley and mid-south and the upper midwest into central
Canada. The associated surface cold front is draped to the SSW and
is still pushing into the mid-Atlantic just west of the local
waters. Winds ahead of the front are mainly SSW 5-10 kt, with some
scattered showers and storms along and just behind the front. Seas
are 2-3 ft, waves ~1 ft.
The front slowly pushes toward the waters this morning, before
stalling over the rivers and bay this afternoon. Winds remain light
and variable ~5-10 kt today into tonight. Additional scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly this
afternoon and tonight along and ahead of the crossing frontal
boundary, though additional showers and storms are also expected
over the weekend in association with this weakening front. High
pressure centered north of the region ridges into the local
area late tomorrow into the weekend, and will nudge the front
just offshore Saturday afternoon and Sat night, though the
weakening front/coastal trough lingers there along/just off the
coastal Carolinas through the weekend. Winds veer from the E-NE
on Saturday (5-10 kt) to the S-SW Sat night and early Sunday,
becoming NNE as the front settles offshore on Sunday and Sun
night, increasing to 10-15 kt Sun aftn/night into Monday.
Unsettled marine conditions are likely from early-mid next week.
Previously referenced Canadian high pressure continues to slowly
build SE from the Great Lakes through midweek. Meanwhile, Tropical
Cyclone Humberto remains out in the central Atlantic Basin, and
Invest (Tropical Disturbance) 94L over Hispaniola is expected to
organize into a tropical cyclone later today while crossing the
southeast Bahamas late today into Saturday. 00z EC/CMC are a bit
slower with the progress of 94L. This opens up at least the
possibility of the system interacting with what will then likely be
Hurricane Humberto over the weekend. This could serve to pull 94L
farther offshore, as it lifts farther out into the Atlantic
into early next week. However, the other camp lead by the 00z
GFS still shows the system getting absorbed into the east coast
upper low, with a subsequent landfall somewhere along the
Coastal Carolinas. Take home point at this time is that there
remains little confidence with a track or intensity regarding
94L, and therefore latching onto any one solutions is not a
great idea at this time range.
What we can say is that while we await emerging model consensus,
marine interests should keep a close eye to the forecast over
the upcoming weekend, as well as the latest track from the NHC
regarding Humberto and 94L. The wind forecast is still obviously
dependent on the progress of these systems. Regardless of the
exact track though, elevated NE winds look increasingly likely
Monday afternoon through at least midweek. The pressure gradient
quickly tightens between previously referenced strong Canadian
high pressure building south and 94L meandering somewhere along
the southeast coast and Humberto looming farther out into the
Atlantic. SCA winds are likely Monday and Monday night, with
higher winds then possible Tue-Wed. Seas also quickly ramp up
during this period, with strong E-SE swell ramping seas upwards
of 6-10 ft Tue night and Wednesday.
Rip Risk is low today and through this weekend, though it will
likely ramp back up to high risk for much of next week as that
swell from both Humberto and 94L lift up into the region.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...ERI/HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...AC/MAM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion