Saxtons River, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

197
FXUS61 KALY 050556
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
156 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After morning clouds and fog dissipate, today will be a warm
and humid day across the region with a partly to mostly sunny
sky. An approaching cold front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms to the region on Saturday and some storms may
contain gusty winds. Behind this frontal boundary, cooler and
less humid air will move into the region for Sunday with
another prolonged stretch of dry and comfortable weather
anticipated into much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:
-With a warm and humid air mass back in place across the region,
 thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will be capable of
 producing damaging winds on Saturday afternoon for southeastern
 areas.
As of 155 AM EDT...A weakening frontal boundary continues to
allow for a band of showers across far eastern NY and western Ne
England. With little instability in place, there hasn`t been
any thunder in our area overnight and these showers will be
exiting to the east over the next hour or two. While some
heavier bursts have been occurring, rainfall hasn`t been
excessive and has been beneficial.
IR satellite imagery shows breaks quickly developing behind the
main band of showers, although some fog has been developing
across sheltered valley areas over western/central NY and
northern PA and this will likely occur across our area as well,
especially for spots that saw decent rainfall earlier last
evening. Through daybreak, some patchy fog may occur, although
it should dissipate after sunrise and should be all gone towards
the mid morning hours.
The frontal boundary that is crossing the area is dissipating
and there won`t be much of an air mass change. As a result, it
will be a rather warm and humid day (especially for early
September standards) with valley areas getting in the low 80s by
afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be
in the 60s, so no fire weather concerns today with a muggy air
mass in place.
A large upper level trough will be digging across the Great
Lakes and will be sending a surface cold front towards the area
for Saturday. Ahead of this approaching boundary, a pre-frontal
trough could allow for a few showers as early as this evening
into tonight for northern areas, but the better chance is likely
on Saturday. This frontal boundary will be taking its time
crossing the region and it may slow down as a wave of low
pressure develops along the front. The exact frontal timing is
somewhat uncertain, which is allowing for some different
solutions in the CAMs. While some showers are possible across
northwestern areas early on Saturday, the best chance for
heavier showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern
areas by Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Areas south
and east of the Capital Region should have some surface-based
instability, with 3km HRRR and NAMNest both suggesting 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE for Dutchess, Litchfield and Berkshire counties for
late Saturday. With strong upper level dynamics in place, there
should be plenty of shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear in the 40 kt
range. Some strong storms continue to be possible as a line of
thunderstorms look to develop, although it will likely be
limited to just these far southeastern areas and into the rest
of New England and the northern mid Atlantic States. SPC
continues the marginal risk for severe storms for our eastern
areas for Saturday.  Temps should spike into the 70s ahead of
the front, although they look to fall once the boundary comes
through. This makes highs tricky for Saturday, as some western
areas may wind up staying in the 60s if the front crosses
earlier in the day.
Behind the front, showers will be ending west of east on
Saturday night, although they may linger slightly thanks to the
wave of low pressure on the front. They should be all done by
Sunday morning, with noticeably cooler and less humid air in
place over the region. Temps on Sunday will only reach the 60s
to low 70s for most areas.
Much of next week looks dry and seasonable. Highs will only
reach into the low to mid 70s for valley areas with high
pressure in control. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
Some upper 30s can`t be ruled out in the Adirondacks, but
widespread frost/freeze isn`t expected quite yet. Humidity
levels look fairly low through the week. The only threat for
showers will be for Wednesday night across the Adirondacks
thanks to a northern stream shortwave, although moisture looks
limited. Otherwise, it will stay dry with a partly to mostly
clear sky through the entire week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Flying conditions are highly variable this
morning as an area of rain makes progress on exiting the region.
KGFL is currently the only terminal observing favored VFR conditions
with low stratus forcing IFR at KALB and the combination of light to
moderate rain and low stratus forcing MVFR at KPOU and KPSF.
Infrared satellite shows additional low stratus moving into the area
behind this area of rain and the slow moving cold front behind it,
but forecast soundings struggled slightly to come to a consensus on
how these will impact each terminal, The greatest confidence in
potential IFR conditions lies with KPOU and KPSF between 09-12z, but
pockets of dry air could mean ceiling heights bounce quite a bit.
Therefore, TEMPO groups were added to these terminals throughout
those hours to account for potential rapid changes. KALB should
improve to MVFR conditions between 08-10z with ceilings at KGFL
maintaining the possibility of falling to MVFR heights between 08-
13z. However, with rapidly drying air behind the cold frontal
passage, conditions across all terminals should return to VFR by
mid/late morning to early afternoon and remain steady through the
remainder of the 06z TAF cycle. Winds throughout the period will
begin out of the southwest to southeast before becoming
predominantly southwesterly. Speeds will gradually continue to
decrease throughout the course of this morning, falling largely
below 10 kt. However, swiftly after daybreak, speeds will increase
such that sustained speeds range from about 20 to 15 kt with gusts
up to 20-25 kt throughout the afternoon and into this evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion