Scales Cemetery South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

450
FXUS62 KGSP 141745
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warmer conditions are expected through Wednesday as
temperatures climb above normal. A dry backdoor cold front moves
through the area Thursday and will bring slight relief to
temperatures before warming again by the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area by Sunday and bring the next chance of rain
for portions of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday: Quiet weather will continue thru the near
term, as dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the
region. A large area of high pressure will slide toward the SE under
this flow across the Great Lakes, with an inverted sfc ridge axis
nosing south thru the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Marginally breezy
northerly winds will continue across the mountains thru around
sunset. Then winds will be light under clear skies tonight. A slight
uptick in sfc dewpts combined with weaker winds will make for better
radiational cooling and potentially more mountain valley and lake
fog than last few nights. Otherwise, clear skies expected across
the area. Lows will be about a category above normal. Wednesday
will be a near carbon copy of today, with highs a few degrees
above normal under sunny skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Tuesday: Longwave upper ridge over the central
CONUS will gradually propagate eastward, while a digging upper low
over Atlantic Canada sags south and eventually cuts off offshore New
England by the end of the short term. A surface high will begin to
move across the Great Lakes region Thursday and stretch over the
Eastern Seaboard by Friday. The leading edge of the surface high
will send a moisture starved backdoor cold front across the CWFA
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will bring a surge of
drier air across the area, while helping to knock afternoon highs
down around 5 degrees on Thursday compared to Wednesday. Surface
high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather through the
rest of the period as the upper ridge axis sets up shop over the
eastern CONUS by Friday. As a result, large diurnal temperature
ranges (25-30 degrees) will persist through the period as the
airmass modifies, while great radiational cooling conditions are
expected overnight Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows should
drop ~5 degrees below normal Thursday night and a few ticks warmer
Friday night. Mostly sunny skies prevail Friday as afternoon highs
remain near-normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 142 PM EDT Tuesday: Model guidance seem to be in good
agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through the weekend
as the upper ridge axis from the short term gradually shifts east
of the area, while breaking down thanks to a digging longwave
upper trough that moves into the eastern CONUS by Sunday with
an attendant cold front. Not much in the way of moisture return
ahead of the front and the better forcing seems to shift north of
the area as the front makes its way into the area. Model guidance
continue to actually back off on the overall QPF response Sunday as
the trough is shown struggling to dig this far south. Still time
for this to change, but the latest trends suggest that the best
PoPs remain in the mountains before the precip along the main
frontal zone dissipates across the Piedmont zones. Otherwise,
a post-frontal regime seems to be in store through the rest of
the forecast period. Temperatures on Saturday will be ~5 degrees
above normal for both highs and lows as better compressional
warming occurs ahead of the front. Along and behind the front
should knock afternoon highs and overnight lows at or slightly
below normal Sunday through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. The exception will be where valley fog forms
overnight. Conditions look favorable for greater coverage than last
few nights Will go with tempo LIFR conditions at KAVL in the 8-12z
time frame. Also, cannot rule out some lake fog forming near KHKY
and my briefing affect the terminal around daybreak Wednesday. Wind
should be relatively light, except for gusts 15-20 kt at KAVL thru
00z. Wind expected to be a little lighter Wednesday.
Outlook: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to persist thru the
week, except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...ARK

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion