Scotland, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS63 KSGF 271902
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
202 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather for the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis showed a blocking pattern across the CONUS with a
trough in the east, a strengthening ridge over the central
plains and a low across the southwest. The 12z KSGF sounding
measured a very dry airmass above 850mb with a PW value of only
0.62in. A surface front was largely stationary from central
Kansas into central Iowa. Other than some low level cumulus east
of Springfield, skies were mostly sunny with temps reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
Through Sunday: Low level cumulus will likely dissipate
after sunset with mostly clear skies for the evening and
overnight hours. Given likely crossover temps in the middle to
upper 50s, would expect some patchy fog again overnight in some
of the low lying areas. HREF output does show some small areas
of fog near lakes/rivers however it should remain very
localized. Lows look to again drop into the 50s. The mid level
ridge looks to expand a little more on Sunday with a slight
increase in 850mb temps (closer to 14-16C). Therefore we should
see high temps a little warmer with most areas in the lower to
middle 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Next Week: Ensemble cluster analysis shows a trough west of the
area with tropical disturbances affecting the far southeast US.
Our area looks to be caught in between with high pressure in
control. A persistence forecast will prevail for much of the
week. 850mb temps in the 12-14C range will support highs in the
80s which is above average (average highs are in the upper 70s).
The latest NBM and other extended guidance continues to show
rain chances remaining below 10 percent for at least the next 7
days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with a few passing high clouds at times. Winds
will remain light and variable however a slight westerly
component should occur this afternoon and evening with speeds
less than 10kts. Patchy fog will occur again tonight however it
should remain away from the TAF sites and mainly in low lying
areas.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion