Scribner, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS63 KOAX 142258
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms develop in the area this afternoon, and
  additional scattered storms move across the area overnight. A
  few of the strongest may produce isolated damaging wind gusts
  and hail up to the size of quarters.
- Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through
  the week. A few strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon,
  with pockets of heavy rain at times through the end of the
  week.
- Temperatures remain warmer than normal through Tuesday, but
  highs return to the mid 70s for Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Rest of this afternoon and tonight:
Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a vigorous mid-level
circulation over southwest NE, with a belt of stronger
mid/upper-level winds rotating around it`s eastern periphery
across central and eastern NE. Warm/moist advection occurring
along a 30-40 kt low-level jet has maintained a band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms across central NE so far today, and
latest CAM guidance suggests that band will decrease in areal
coverage as it continues to shift east into eastern NE this
afternoon. East of the ongoing convection, thinner clouds have
allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s, which when coupled
with dewpoints in the 60s, is resulting in mixed-layer CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg as of early afternoon.
Current surface observations indicate a low-level convergence
zone setting up across our western counties, with the CAMs
indicating isolated to widely scattered storm development along
that feature as it slowly shifts east this afternoon. Our 18z
sounding, shows the presence of relatively steep lapse rates in
the lowest 3 km, with generally a unidirectional wind profile
featuring modest amounts of vertical shear. Given these
parameters, the potential will exist for a few strong to severe
storms with the primary hazard being wind gusts up to 50-65
mph. Isolated occurrences of hail approaching quarter size
cannot be ruled out. Farther west, the models continue to
indicate a more organized line of storms evolving over central
NE late this afternoon into early evening, with that activity
eventually moving into northeast NE by 9-10 PM. Those storms
will also be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may
linger through the overnight hours into Monday morning as the
above-mentioned, upper-air system lifts to the north of the
area.
It will remain warm on Monday with highs in the 80s.
Tuesday through Saturday:
The 12z global models remain in good agreement in the
progression of a mid-level trough from the northern
Intermountain Region into the northern and central Plains, where
it will form a closed low. Several embedded vorticity maxima
will move through the broader trough/low, contributing daily
precipitation chances. The best rainfall potential (60-80% PoPs) will
exist on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a stronger vorticity
maximum pivots through the mid MO Valley. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible at that time. The greatest potential for a few
strong to severe storms will exist on Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday as a lead disturbance moves into the region.
Warm temperatures are expected to linger into Tuesday, with
readings cooling into the 70s from Wednesday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A strong storm recently moved through KOMA, with the most
concentrated area of storms now located to the north and east of
the terminal locations. Other more isolated showers from west of
Nebraska City to west of Falls City will continue north,
potentially reaching KOMA in the next hour or two. Elsewhere, a
large complex of thunderstorms currently over central NE will
continue east, with the models indicating that activity reaching
KOFK by about 15/03z. Periods of MVFR conditions and gusty
winds are possible as those storms move through the area.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion