Seadrift, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

357
FXUS64 KCRP 051756
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1256 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Hot and humid conditions persist today
- Fire Danger Statement in effect from 1-7 PM today
- Increased rain chances return this weekend into early next week
  with highest chances (60 to 70%) Sunday into Monday
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding Sunday and Sunday
night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Conditions will be, you guessed it, hot and humid once again today
with highs in the upper 90s to lower 105s around the region. This is
due to the continued influence of the upper level ridge that is
influencing the calm and warm conditions. This is expected to come
to an end over the next few days though ahead of our next chance for
rain.
The next couple of days seems to still have some degree of
uncertainty though most models have continued to back off in terms
of activity. Though we will likely see some activity given the
environment: influx off moisture associated with the remnants of PTC
Lorena from the eastern Pacific and return flow off of the Gulf
(around 2 inches) and a weak boundary that is expected to encroach
the area from the north. A lot of uncertainty remains though, it`s
seeming increasingly likely that this could be more of a isolated to
scattered coverage type of event with some potentially locally heavy
rainfall. QPFs have continued to stay around an inch with some
isolated areas up to 2 inches specifically around the coast. Given
the continued dry trend the PoPs for the Sunday/Monday period were
adjusted down to around 60-70%. Should gain some more clarity as
mesoscale models continue to come into range. WPC is still
maintaining a marginal risk (5%) that still includes South Texas for
Sunday and Sunday night. There looks to be some lingering rain
chances on Tuesday as the boundary clears the area and the sea
breeze arrives during the afternoon though we should dry out for the
majority of the rest of the week. An upper-level ridge will continue
to retrograde to the west of the region E-TX to Mexico through next
week allowing for some energy to ride the ridge into the region
later next week. This will allow for some low rain chances to creep
back into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions can be expected through the period as winds should
increase with gusts of 20 to 25 knots across the eastern. This is
due to a low to the west tightening the pressure gradient though,
this should relax across those sites late this evening and
transition to the western sites. Winds come down across all sites
by the early morning hours. Rain chances will increase tomorrow
though uncertainty remains on timing and location as well as the
coverage. Due to this the decision was made to leave it out of the
TAFs for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breeze (BF 3-4) is
expected through Saturday before backing more easterly into early
next week. Rain chances will quickly increase Friday night into
Saturday and generally running in the 50 to 70% range each day
through Tuesday. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds
can be expected in and around stronger thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across
the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop to critical levels and climatological
normals ranging between 20-30% Friday afternoon. These low
relative humidity values will coincide with Energy Release
Component (ERC) values in the 70-89th percentile which could
increase the probability of fire ignition. Winds will remain
generally under 15 knots which will limit any further significant
fire weather concerns. Fire weather concerns should diminish
during the weekend as moisture and rain chances increase over the
area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  94  78  92 /  10  50  40  70
Victoria          74  95  73  93 /   0  50  30  60
Laredo            79 102  78  98 /   0  30  30  60
Alice             75  97  75  93 /   0  40  30  60
Rockport          80  92  78  92 /  20  50  50  70
Cotulla           77  98  76  94 /  10  20  40  70
Kingsville        76  95  75  93 /  10  40  30  60
Navy Corpus       82  90  82  89 /  30  50  50  70
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion