Seagrove, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS62 KRAH 210632
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will move southwest through NC this
morning. High pressure will follow and extend across the Middle
Atlantic through Monday, then drift to near Bermuda through mid-
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front will reach the region this evening.
* A few isolated showers may be possible this afternoon, with the
  best chance in the southern Piedmont.
* Above normal temperatures continue.
Based on the 17Z observations and satellite, it appears that the
backdoor cold front is located in central VA. Over the next several
hours it will continue to move southward into central NC. While the
frontal passage should be dry, a few isolated showers/potential
thunderstorms may be possible ahead of the front, with the best
chance in the southern Piedmont where instability appears to be
maximized this afternoon. Currently, a few showers/storms are
already starting to develop in northern SC. Tonight, behind the
front, areas of fog and low stratus look to spread into the region
from the northeast.
Temperatures should be up to 5 degrees above normal today. This
afternoon expect maximum temperatures around the mid 80s in the
north to the upper 80s in the south. Temperatures overnight look to
dip into the low 60s areawide, with perhaps a few locations dipping
into the upper 50s in the coolest spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Warm and dry day expected.
Surface high pressure will build back in on Sunday. This should
allow central NC to return to a dry period, with no rain expected on
Sunday. Temperatures Sunday should be slightly cooler than today,
with highs expected in the low 80s in the north to the mid 80s in
the south. Lows overnight should dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night another area of low stratus and/or fog will be
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
At the beginning of Monday, surface high pressure will be centered
over Massachusetts with a ridge extending southwest into the
Carolinas. A surface low will be over the Dakotas with a stationary
front extending east towards the Great Lakes. At upper levels, a
trough over the northern Rockies will move southeast, eventually
merging with an upper low over the western Great Lakes mid-week
across the Plains. The merging of the upper level features will help
intensify the surface low as it slowly pushes east.
Locally, Monday and Tuesday will be dry as the surface high remains
along the East Coast. As the upper low merges and moves into the
central Plains, the chance for rain should expand eastward into
North Carolina late Wednesday, but the better chances for rain
arrive later in the week, with Friday currently being the day with
the highest chances for showers.
As the surface wind changes from having a northerly component on
Monday to a southerly component Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will
slowly increase through the week, with widespread 80s and a few 90
degree readings on Wednesday. As more cloud cover moves in along
with showers later in the week, highs will then decrease, ranging
from the mid 70s to the low 80s by Saturday. Lows will generally be
in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...
Behind a backdoor cold front now settling swwd and into the NC
Sandhills and wrn Piedmont, moist nely flow will favor the swwd
development and lowering of an area of IFR-MVFR ceilings now
spreading throughout most of VA and more recently nern NC. These
ceilings will likely become LIFR-IFR as they envelop RWI and RDU
during the next few hours, and later and more briefly at GSO, INT,
and perhaps FAY. Some visibility restrictions and patchy drizzle may
also result. Lifting and scattering to VFR will then result between
14-16Z, with generally light nely surface winds.
Outlook: Nely flow will favor the development of widespread IFR-MVFR
ceilings and perhaps some patchy drizzle late tonight-Mon morning,
with slow lifting and scattering to VFR through Mon midday-
afternoon. Areas of stratus and also some fog will be possible again
Tue and Wed mornings, mainly at RWI and FAY. Showers/storms and
flight restrictions are expected late Wed into the upcoming weekend,
as a slow-moving trough aloft and surface cold front approach our
region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion