817 FXUS64 KOHX 080345 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Dry weather has returned to Middle TN and will stick around through at least the next 7 days.
- Gradual warming each day with highs pushing back into the mid 80s to lower 90s by mid week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A strong area of high pressure is set up to our north and will bring quiet weather for the start of the week. Northerly winds have pushed drier air into the region and dew points have fallen into the 40s. With clear skies and light winds early Monday we will see strong radiational cooling with chilly lows in the 40s. With the drier air mass in place fog will be less of a concern for Monday morning and is not expected. Highs will be similar on Monday to what we saw Sunday making it into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure will be drifting off to the east Monday night and that will bring southerly flow. That will keep things a bit warmer with lows falling into the 50s. Southerly flow on Tuesday will start to push dew points back into the 50s to around 60 and warm highs into the low to mid 80s. A short wave will track out of the Plains and pass to our north later Tuesday into Wednesday. Soundings saturate some with the short wave but dry air looks to remain in place aloft. With the better forcing staying north and the dry air we will remain dry but can expected some cloud cover on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A short wave trough will be tracking through the Great Lakes on Wednesday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. The short wave will bring us some cloud cover but no rain is expected. The upper level ridge will then slowly build east late week into the weekended. This will bring warming temperatures and we will see them push back into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday with more widespread 90s by the end of the week. No rain is forecasted throughout the forecast which will not help the developing drought conditions across Middle TN.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions through the period. Winds will lessen to around 5 knots overnight, with increases west of the plateau to around 10 knots around sunrise. SKC ceilings prevail.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 52 81 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 48 81 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 47 75 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 49 80 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 48 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 47 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 48 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 49 81 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 48 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Holley
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion