Sebastopol, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS64 KHGX 300518
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment
  that can cause sparks and start a fire. Dry conditions persist.
- Some mid-high level cloud cover passing overhead today, but a
  sunnier sky will return Wednesday.
- Rain chances will be virtually nil until late this week when
  moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms closer to the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Mid-upper trof axis situated across West Texas should continue
making its way eastward today, and eventually to our east tonight.
Look for increased cloud cover (and maybe even some virga showing up
on the radar scope from time-to-time) into the afternoon hours. Once
we get on the backside of the trof and into a drier nwly flow aloft,
we`ll see decreased/thinning cloudiness. One note about the sfc low
situated 370+ miles offshore: the combination of the upper trof, low
level ridging to the northeast, and overall dry air should keep this
a non-issue in our local wx as it is further suppressed to the
southwest as time goes on. One other thing of note in the short-term
time period is the low RH`s and fire weather awareness. Please see
that explanation in the section below.
As we head closer to the weekend, a long fetch of easterly winds is
forecast to set up across the northern Gulf Coast. Look for a
corresponding modest increase in dewpoints and RH`s...and slightly
"less pleasant feeling" evenings we`ve seen the past several days.
We`ll also re-introduce some low end rain chances for folks south of
about the I-10 corridor (better chance of scattered activity
offshore). Those further inland may need to wait until the middle of
next week before seeing POPs worth mentioning, unfortunately.  47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will become light and
variable overnight. Light ENE winds for northern terminals for
Tuesday with southern terminals becoming more E.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The landbreeze and seabreeze circulation will be evident the next
few days with light offshore winds prevailing late at night and in
the mornings followed by onshore winds in the afternoon and evening
hours. A long easterly fetch will set up across the northern Gulf
later this week which should bring an uptick in east winds, seas/
swell, and water levels by the weekend. Depending on the eventual
longevity of this fetch, we may need to keep an eye out for
caution/advsy conditions developing Fri-Sat. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances in the waters as well during this time period.
47
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Dry conditions will persist for the next several days. Daytime RH`s
are forecast to bottom out in the 28-35% range for a good part of
the area through at least Thursday, and with drying fuels, this
creates an environment more vulnerable to wildfire starts. Those
doing land clearing will want to use some extra caution to ensure
they are keeping any fire under control and have the resources to
quickly respond if it gets out of hand. Those working with equipment
(like loose chains, etc) - should be ensuring that sparks will be
eliminated, minimized, or at least contained to non-flammable
surfaces.
Mitigating the dry fuel conditions will be light wind speeds that
should be favorable to firefighting efforts in controlling any fires
that may start, but it`s probably really just better to avoid having
the fires in the first place.
A more easterly flow sets up heading into the weekend which should
allow for a modest increase in dewpoints/RH`s and low rain
chances...primarily south of I-10 though.   47/Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  69  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  77  89  77  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion