Seboeis Plt, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS61 KCAR 191904
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest
this afternoon and tonight then crest over the area Saturday
into Saturday night. High pressure will move southeast of the
region Sunday into Monday. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday then exit across the Gulf of Maine Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover has been decreasing
throughout the day today as a cool and very dry airmass moves
into Maine behind the cold front departing to the east. Expect
clouds to mostly dissipate by the evening. High pressure builds
in throughout the rest of today and overnight leading to clear
skies through Saturday night.
A pressure gradient between the exiting low pressure and the
approaching high is contributing to some gusty winds today with
breezy conditions continuing overnight. While clear skies
tonight would generally be favorable for strong radiational
cooling, the elevated winds overnight should prevent full
decoupling of the near surface layer preventing temperatures
from getting too low. However, areas in the north are likely to
approach freezing raising the risk for a frost. The greatest
risk for sub-freezing temperatures is in the North Woods and
thus have issued a freeze warning there and a frost advisory
for remaining northern zones.
A sunny day is expected Saturday with breezy NW winds and below
normal temperatures. Another cold night is in store Saturday
night as lighter winds will favor greater radiational cooling.
Thus, expect the frost risk to be greater than Friday night with
much of the area north of Houlton and Dover-Foxcroft to be at
or below 32 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves southeast of the region Sunday through Sunday
night. Expect mostly sunny skies across the region Sunday, with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Sunday night. High pressure remains
ridged southeast of the region Monday, with a frontal boundary north
of the region across Quebec province. Generally expect partly sunny
skies across northern areas Monday, though could also have the
slight chance of showers toward the Saint John Valley late. Expect
mostly sunny skies Downeast Monday. The cold front should approach
northern Maine Monday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
chance of showers north, partly cloudy Downeast, Monday night.
Expect near normal level temperatures Sunday. Expect near normal, to
slightly above normal, level temperatures Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will begin to cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure
should develop along the front, to the west of the forecast area.
The cold front should exit across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night
while low pressure moves along the front. Aloft, a trof should also
begin to cross the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. However,
uncertainty still exists regarding the timing of the surface low and
upper pattern. Expect a chance of showers with the front Tuesday. A
chance of showers, possibly a steadier rain, will occur Tuesday
night dependent on the eventual low track and evolution of the upper
pattern. The upper trof should cross the region Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Could still have a chance of showers Wednesday.
Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies Wednesday through Wednesday
night. High pressure should build toward the region Thursday, then
cross the region Friday. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies
Thursday/Friday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level
temperatures are expected Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today...VFR with NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 to 25 kts.
Tonight...VFR with NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Saturday...VFR with NW winds around 10 kts gusting to 15 to 20
kts.
Saturday Night...VFR with light and variable winds. Possible
IFR in patchy fog, most likely at PQI.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday through Monday...Variable conditions with any patchy, mostly
river valley, fog Sunday night. Otherwise, VFR. Slight chance of a
shower north late Monday. Southwest/south winds 10 to 15 knots
Sunday, then 5 to 10 knots Sunday night, then 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday.
Monday night...Occasional MVFR with a chance of showers across
northern areas. Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming variable.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through Saturday night. A few gusts of around
20 kts early tonight possible but likely to stay below advisory
criteria.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
through Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy and cool conditions continue this afternoon with
northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Northwest/west
winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph Saturday. Dry conditions are
expected through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative
humidities today should range from 30 to 40 percent, then
around 20 to 30 percent Saturday. The greatest combination of
dry fuels and warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s
will be across the southern half of the forecast area,
particularly the Downeast coast.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-003-
     004.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ002-005-
     006-010-031.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Melanson/Norcross
Marine...Melanson/Norcross
Fire Weather...Melanson

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion