Second Mace Trail Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS65 KPUB 112336
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
  overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. Activity then
  gradually diminishes Sunday morning.
- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for the higher
  elevations of the eastern San Juans overnight.
- Unsettled with mountain showers expected much of next week,
  though uncertainty exists for late week systems.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Waves of showers have continued to rotate northeastward across
the mountains/valleys today, with activity dissipating to mostly
sprinkles as it reaches the eastern plains. Have yet to see much
if any lightning over the area, though a strike or two will
remain possible into the evening. Storm total rainfall amounts
of over 2 inches have been reported in the eastern San Juans
along the Continental Divide (around Wolf Creek Pass) with
lesser amounts around an inch at lower elevations in Mineral
County. Rainfall rates have remained low enough (0.1 to 0.2
inches per hr) to keep any flood risk low so far on our side of
the Divide, though many smaller streams are likely
near/approaching bankfull over the upper Rio Grande Basin.
Overnight, back edge of deeper moisture was already along the
CO/UT border at mid-afternoon, and expect drying to gradually
work eastward for the remainder of the day into the tonight.
Still the potential for another wave or 2 of heavier showers
(one this evening and perhaps another after midnight) across the
mountains, with an additional half inch to inch of rain
possible around Wolf Creek Pass, lighter amounts elsewhere. Will
keep flood watch up through the night, with product expiring
12z (6 am mdt) Sun morning.
Rain decreases quickly Sunday as tropical moisture decreases and
upper wave lifts northeast, leaving just a few lingering
showers over the San Juans by midday. Dry elsewhere, with a late
afternoon cold front dropping south through the plains into
Sunday evening. Late afternoon frontal timing and a lack of much
cloud cover will lead to another warm day over the region,
especially over the plains where maxes will climb into the 80s
prior to the frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Sunday Night - Friday: For the rest of the week, unsettled
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Early in the week, southwesterly flow will prevail as troughing
develops across the western US and high pressure sits across the
Texas region. Then for late week, the troughing to the west
will push eastward and over the area. Confidence is medium to
high (60-70%) in the broader synoptic pattern, though there
remains a large amount of uncertainty in how embedded waves and
troughing late in the week will ultimately evolve, lowering
overall forecast confidence some. Regardless though,
precipitation chances are anticipated to stay elevated across
the mountains, with on and off mountain showers expected, and
periods of spill over across the valleys and plains possible.
Precipitation chances will be most widespread during the Tuesday
timeframe, when a northward surge in moisture is expected.
Outside of all of that, breezy conditions are expected to
continue, especially around midweek, with periods of increased
cloud cover continuing. As for temperatures, Monday will be the
coolest day, with below seasonal temperatures for the entire
region behind the late Sunday cold front. For the rest of the
week, "rollercoaster" temperature trends are expected, with slow
warming heading into Wednesday, and then another cool down in
temperatures by the end of the week as the troughing pattern
pushes over.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Upper trough of low pressure swinging across the Rocky Mt region
continues to bring abundant moisture to the higher terrain, and
brisk W-SW winds across much of the state. Generally VFR
conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS, though specifics outlined below. Surface cold
front will be approaching KCOS and the far eastern plains by the
end of the forecast period.
KCOS - South winds gusting to near 30 kts at times through 03z, then
becoming W-NW through the night generally less than 10 kts.
Mentioned WS from 12-15z for W winds to 35 kt just off the deck.
Increasing NW winds  tomorrow afternoon ahead of approaching cold
front.
KPUB - Surface winds generally under 10 kts through the night,
becoming W and gusting to near 25 kt by 22z tomorrow.
KALS - Will have the best chance of continued -SHRA through 12z with
intermittent MVFR cigs and vsby. South winds around 15 kts with
occasional gusts to 25 kts, becoming SW by midday tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion