Section One Tank Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

299
FXUS65 KFGZ 142320
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level Low over southern California will track
northeast tonight and tomorrow, however the only impacts to our
area will be a few showers overnight through noon Wednesday in far
northwest Arizona.  Drier and cooler conditions are expected for
Thursday and Friday with temperatures warming up to near normal
for the rest of the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Upper level Low is currently moving onshore just
north of Santa Barbara. The main impact at the moment is a
pressure gradient between it and an area of high pressure over
Texas. The Wind Advisory was expanded over the eastern Rim and
White Mountains as stations in those locales were picking up
elevated winds this morning.
Tonight as the upper level Low tracks into southern Nevada and
eventually Utah on Wednesday, the frontal band associated with
this feature will bring a few showers across northwestern Arizona.
Kaibab Plateau and Jacob Lake could see a rain snow mix or snow
shower Wednesday morning before things move out by midday
Wednesday. Rest of the region will stay mainly dry and breezy
again although the winds are expected to ease back about 5 mph
lighter than today and are expected to stay below Wind Advisory
criteria. Temperatures will remain below average as heights aloft
drop with the passage of this trough.
Thursday and Friday the area will be under a northwesterly flow
aloft which will continue to keep temperatures below average. By
Friday evening and into the weekend a shortwave ridge will move
through the area bringing a brief warming trend with temperatures
recovering back up to mid October averages.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Expect
mainly VFR conditions. Some MVFR CIGS may form over higher terrain
from terminal KFLG northward overnight, due to a cold front moving
through the area. SCT -SHRA possible over the Kaibab Plateau from
about 06Z-18Z Wednesday. Sfc winds decreasing to S-SSW10-20kts
overnight, with some higher gusts lee of terrain features. Sfc
winds AFT 18Z Wednesday S-SW10-20g25kts.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds are not expected to impact flight operations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Other than a slight chance
of rain and snow showers before noon Wednesday on the Kaibab
Plateau, expect dry weather with temperatures 5-10 degrees below
average. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Wednesday,
becoming NW-N 5-10 mph on Thursday. Min RH values 25-40% Thursday,
20-30% Friday.
Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions continue with temperatures
warming up to normal by Saturday and Sunday. NW-N 5-10 mph Friday,
light and variable Saturday,  S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday. Min RH values
20-30% each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ007-
008-015>017.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion