Seneca, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

496
FXUS63 KTOP 201139
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-There are a few opportunities for rain this weekend, but widespread
 precipitation is not looking likely.
-Better chances for widespread rainfall return during the upcoming
 workweek.
-A cool pattern takes shape next week with lingering rain
 chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Early today, an upper low remains north of the area. Two areas of
rain where evident on radar, one in southern Nebraska and the other
in southern Kansas fueled by a nocturnal LLJ. Here, in between,
scattered rain showers were trying to develop with isentropic
ascent generating some lift over the area. Instability is very
limited with mesoanalysis showing between 100 and 250 J/kg but
around 30 kts of sfc-6km bulk shear. Am thinking that this set
up with produce widely scattered rain showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm through the morning hours. Severe weather
is not expected and not everyone will see rain given the
scattered nature of the coverage.
The afternoon hours today are looking dry with some sunshine
returning. Temperatures look to top out in the mid 70s for most of
the area. POPs begin to increase once again tonight with the
approach of another mid-level wave on the southern edge of a low
dropping out of Canada and phasing with the previously mentioned
upper low. The strongest lift looks to occur Sunday afternoon,
which is when POPs will be highest, especially across far
eastern KS. There looks to be enough instability in place for
scattered thunderstorms, but shear will be very weak and severe
weather is not expected.
Looking ahead into the workweek, low amplitude mid-level ridging
will likely keep conditions dry on Monday. Temperatures are forecast
to be around 80 degrees with southerly flow for this year`s Autumnal
Equinox, which marks the official start to the fall season. The
next low pressure system will be digging out of the Northwest
and over the central US on Tuesday. Long range models still
struggle to agree on the placement of that system, but there
seems to be good agreement on increasing chances (60-70%) for
rain. Tuesday presents the best chance for widespread rain and
QPF ranges from half an inch to one inch across the area. While
models differ on the evolution of that system into midweek, most
show a slow progression and keep rain chances in the forecast
through that timeframe. High temperatures should be on the cool
side of average, mainly in the low to mid 70s, with the upper
low hovering in the region for at least part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A brief period of MVFR CIGS is expected at KFOE & KMHK. Low end
VFR is forecast at KTOP, but trends will need to be monitored as
low ceilings develop through midday. Have removed rain chances
as those chances have decreased to around 20 percent. Winds will
be light and variable as high pressure moves right over the area
today.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion