Seward, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS63 KDDC 071005
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly cloudy skies across most of southwest KS will support
  another day of well below-normal temperatures, except for the
  western zones.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening
  west of US-83. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
  primary hazards.
- Warm and dry Tuesday through the end of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
longwave troughing is in place from the High Plains through the
east coast, with weak ridging upstream along the spine of the
Rockies. Daytime Sunday, short range guidance agrees 500-mb
heights will rise over the central plains as the trough begins
to lift to the northeast and the ridge broadens. At the surface,
high pressure will move from the far northern plains
southeastward into the Midwest, resulting in southerly winds
across southwest KS. Normally, increasing 500-mb heights ahead
of a broadening ridge would support clear skies and warm
temperatures for our area. However, a shortwave trough cresting
the ridge and ejecting onto the central plains will foster
mostly cloudy skies for much of the area, leading to another day
of well-below normal afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s for
most, while the western zones see low/mid 80s where proximity to
the ridge axis will limit cloud cover. Additionally, this
shortwave impulse may aid in the development of afternoon
thunderstorms west of US-83 as some HREF members suggest. Modest
mid-level northwesterly flow atop surface southerlies should
promote 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and combine with at
least 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates to
sustain a severe hail/wind risk through roughly midnight. Once
the storms cross into the OK panhandle, the rest of the
overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 50s/low
60s.
On Monday, short range ensembles suggest the synoptic pattern
will deamplify further as the eastern trough continues northeast
and the western ridge dampens. HREF members are strongly hinting
at some early morning, sub-severe thunderstorms within a warm
advection regime along and east of US-183 that persist into the
early afternoon. This activity will pose little to no threat,
with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and perhaps some mild
street flooding the only hazards. Once these clear our area to
the east, outflow and convective cloud debris over our eastern
zones will once again keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s,
with steadily increasing highs with western extent, reaching
the upper 80s/low 90s along the KS/CO border.
Tuesday through the remainder of the work week, medium range
ensembles agree the weak upper level ridge will slide east and
stall out over the High Plains as a large longwave trough moves
ashore along the west coast. Given synoptic-scale subsidence
overhead, a return to the typical late summer/early fall warm
and dry pattern is likely, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s
to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
light and variable winds will begin to strengthen after sunrise
later this morning, peaking from the late morning through
afternoon out of the south at 13-17 kts gusting 23-27 kts. After
sunset, winds will relax to aoa 12 kts. There is also an off
chance for thunderstorms near LBL and GCK during the 21-06Z time
frame, however confidence was too low for any TS mention in the
TAFs.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion