Shallotte, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

157
FXUS62 KILM 062314
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
710 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions continue through tonight ahead of a
cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
this cold front can be expected closer to the coast for Sunday
through Sunday night. Cooler temperatures and breezy northeast
winds will return during the work week along with the potential
for unsettled weather as the cold front stalls offshore and one
or more weak waves of low pressure track along it.
&&
.UPDATE/... Just a small tweak this evening to raise POPs in the
extreme western part of the CWA to give a bit more breathing room to
the lurking convection that CAMs are starting to push slightly
eastward. The storms should dissipate soon anyway.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows the Bermuda high still having some
influence on the coastal Carolinas, while a cold front is draped
over Appalachia. Temperatures have already soared into the upper 80s
as of 12:30 PM EDT, with the low-to-mid 90s on the way as we
progress through the afternoon. Diurnal cumulus are already starting
to pop, which should be the extent of the activity for most. Can`t
rule out an isolated shower or storm later this afternoon, but the
majority should stay warm and dry.
Tonight, the front continues to push eastward through the Piedmont
during the overnight hours, edging closer to the coast by Sunday
morning. Moisture increases throughout the layer, with precipitable
water values increasing to near 1.85" along and west of I-95. But
for now, this should only spell out an increase in cloud cover from
west to east. Muggy lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday, the cold front slowly pushes offshore, but the forecast
remains dry at first. Ironically, there`s some dry intrusion noted
in the lower layers, which inhibits rain chances. But as the day
wears on, this drier layer moistens up. Meanwhile, convergence with
the seabreeze and the stalled frontal boundary will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to pop by midday. There could be a
relatively narrow band that sets up just inland from the coast,
where high rainfall amounts could total over an inch in some
isolated areas. Training in some storms may occur, since storm
motions could be parallel to the boundaries in place, but flash
flooding doesn`t appear to be of significant concern.
Cooler air will start to infiltrate in the far interior regions, but
won`t travel past I-95 just yet. This will create a gradient of high
temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s in the Pee Dee region to
the mid 80s at the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As a mid-level shortwave trough pivots through New England on Sunday
night, a surge of cooler and drier air digging into the Piedmont
region will help to nudge the stalled front from Sunday offshore.
However, forcing attendant to the shortwave and increased surface
convergence along the front may allow for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to continue well into the night, especially along the
coast. This wave will lift away on Monday and leave the front
stalled just off the coast, keeping cloudiness and rain chances in
place near the coast through the remainder of the period. Rather
strong high pressure shifting from the Midwest on Sunday to over New
England on Tuesday will result in a robust a cold air damming setup
by Tuesday, producing breezy northeast winds and keeping high temps
below normal. In addition, guidance is starting to hone in on a weak
surface low tracking along the front on Tuesday, causing it to waver
closer to the coast and bringing the potential for a period of
steadier rain, at least in the Cape Fear region. With pwats
likely around 2" along the coast, some locally heavy rain may
occur at times.
Steady northeast winds and enhanced cloud cover towards the coast
will result in a muted diurnal temperature curve, with highs in the
upper 70s to around 80F and lows in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance suggests that a broad trough pivoting down from central
Canada into New England will send another cold front southward late
in the week, bringing a robust surge of cooler and drier air that
pushes the stalled front further offshore. As a result, rain chances
should decrease through the latter half of the week, effectively
ceasing once this next front pushes through. Until it arrives,
however, coastal rain chances and extensive cloud cover will remain
a concern. High temps will also remain below normal until things
clear out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR heading into early tonight. Some MVFR to IFR cigs expected later
tonight mainly predawn. Confidence is a bit lower regarding fog. The
models that show IFR seems pessimistic in light of the increasing
clouds. Thunderstorm coverage increases tomorrow after midday and
will warrant PROB30s for for now. As confidence increases esp for
coastal terms some TEMPOs or even FM groups could be warranted.
Extended Outlook...Wedge of high pressure to settle in late Sunday
night through midweek next week, bringing periodic restrictions from
low stratus and the threat for rain, mainly closer to the coast.
Active NE winds could periodically gust to 20+ kt, mainly at the
coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Southeasterly winds at 5-10 kts continue
through this afternoon. Tonight, a cold front will slowly
approach the coastal waters, allowing winds to gradually veer to
the southwest and then west through the overnight hours.
Varying wind direction throughout the day Sunday with the cold
front stalled out over the waters, with the gradient tightening
later in the day. This brings the speeds up a bit to 10-12 kts.
Seas at 1-2 ft increase slightly to 2 ft.
Sunday night through Thursday... Steady north to northeast
winds will dominate the entire period as a stalled front sits
over or just east of the coastal waters while high pressure
north of the area tightens the pressure gradient between Sunday
night and Tuesday night. Abundant showers and occasional
thunderstorms combined with breezy northeast winds will make for
uncomfortable to dangerous conditions for small craft with
sustained winds of 20-25 kts from early Monday through Tuesday
evening before subsiding into the 10-20 kt range for Wednesday
through Thursday.
Seas will increase from Sunday night through Tuesday in tandem with
the increasing winds. 6+ ft seas are forecast to enter into the
coastal water zones during the afternoon on Monday and peak on
Tuesday with heights of 6-7 ft (possibly up to 8 ft near the 20nmi
boundary offshore of Cape Fear) before subsiding to 2-4 ft for
Wednesday and Thursday. Northeasterly wind waves and swells with a
period around 5-6 seconds will dominate the period, with a secondary
southeasterly swell of 1-2 ft every 6 seconds anticipated from
Sunday night into Monday night before subsiding.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...IGB/ABW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion