804 FXUS61 KCLE 120757 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 357 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS... A surface ridge builds from the northeast today into Monday and will keep a strong low pressure system off the East Coast. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region for Wednesday through Friday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The area is dry and mostly clear this morning with just some clouds, associated with a weakening trough, over western Lake Erie and into adjacent portions of North Central Ohio around Sandusky. This boundary will continue west early this morning and keep weakening as any supportive energy aloft will remain well to the east. A surface ridge will begin building in from the northeast today. A wedge of moisture may enter ahead of this feature this afternoon and bring some clouds, especially to the eastern half of the area. However, the ridge will ultimately keep the large low pressure system off the East Coast and drier air will advect from the northeast tonight into Monday to clear out clouds and keep the area dry. With dry conditions and more sun than clouds, expect temperatures to rise each day with a mix of 60s and 70s today and widespread 70s on Monday. Portions of Northwest Ohio that are especially dry with drought conditions may be quicker to warm and mid-70s on Monday are likely and could even trend warmer. Sunday night lows will be seasonable in the 40s.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue across the region for Monday night into Tuesday with the surface ridge remaining over the region. Temperatures on Tuesday may trickle slightly warmer, given persistent dry conditions. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will quickly move across the area. Overall, the frontal passage continues to appear dry with limited moisture in the region. However, the cold front will be effective in ushering in a cooler, Canadian high pressure system. High temperatures on Wednesday may be achieved early in the morning, around Midnight, and remain in the 50s during the daytime hours with cold advective flow battling the diurnal cycle. Wednesday night will be fairly cool with temperatures in the 30s and there will be some Frost/Freeze concerns.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday will remain dry with cool high pressure across the region. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Thursday and rebound to near normal on Friday. Thursday night will continue to have the potential for Frost/Freeze concerns with temperatures in the 30s for most. For Friday night and into the weekend, a low pressure system will target the Great Lakes region. A warm front will press through the local area on Friday night into Saturday and bring the potential for some rain showers. Temperatures on Saturday will get a considerable bump into the 60s and 70s with the area in the warm sector of the system. The associated cold front with the low pressure system will move through the region and bring increased rain chances Saturday and beyond.
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.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Non-VFR vsbys are possible in patchy fog at FDY early this morning, though confidence is low on coverage. Otherwise, periodic sct to perhaps brief bkn ceilings of 3.5 to 4.5kft will spread from east to west across the area through this evening.
Winds early this morning are generally out of the northeast, 5 knots or less. Winds will gradually favor an easterly direction later this morning and afternoon, 7 to 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are favored through Thursday.
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.MARINE... East to east-northeast flow will develop across Lake Erie late this evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, though it appears that the greatest chance for waves greater than 4 feet will be in the open waters, with the nearshore areas generally ranging in the 2 to 4-foot range. Marine headlines are not necessary at this time, though may need to re-evaluate if winds favor a more northeast direction. Otherwise, the next potential for Small Craft conditions to develop across Lake Erie will be Tuesday night through Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through the area, ushering in northerly flow of 15 to 20 knots.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Kahn
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion