Shelley Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

142
FXUS65 KPIH 111154
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
554 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms today and much colder. Snow
  levels dropping to 5 to 6 thousand feet tonight.
- 1-3" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes
  Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Cold front moving through eastern Idaho this morning and expect
a significant temperatures drop through the day. Precipitation
amounts have diminished a bit as the models have come closer to
the event with generally only a tenth or 2 in the Snake River
Plain with the most still in the eastern highlands where a 50
percent chance of greater than 0.50 inches liquid. Any snow
amounts will be light with around 1 to 3 inches in the Island
Park area and surrounding areas the highest with only a few
tenths in the central mountains. Brunt of the precipitation will
be this afternoon and early evening in the Snake Plain and
eastern mountains then tapering off overnight with most
precipitation in the eastern highlands overnight into Sunday
with snow levels in the 5 to 6 thousand foot range overnight and
Sunday with 1 to 3 inch amounts in the Island Park areas and
over mountain passes. Temperatures today will fall into the 40s
mountains and 50s valleys. Lows tonight 20s and 30s and highs
Sunday upper 30s to mid 40s mountains and upper 40s to low 50s
valleys. Lows Sunday night teens to 20s mountains and 20s to
lower 30s valleys. Will have breezy conditions in the Snake
River Plain with 15 to 25 mph winds and gusts 30 to 35 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Rain and snow showers will be decreasing as the pattern
reloads to our west early next week. With southerly flow ahead of
the next split flow/closed low setup, we will see more 60s returning
to the forecast. The "driest" day is Monday although a few showers
are still possible. The pattern quickly returns to wet and cool by
the middle and end parts of next week. Looking at potential for
cooler temperatures and the associated issue of snowfall, the colder
end of our Blend of Models has highs barely reach 50 in our typical
warmer spots by the end of next week. That scenario is certainly
possible given a potential track of the closed low is right over
eastern Idaho. The days of with highs of 70+ looked to be numbered
at the moment, at least in the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Will have showers and some thunderstorms at all TAF sites today.
Do have some reduced visibility at DIJ overnight with MVFR
ceilings as that is where most precipitation will occur of all
the TAF sites today. Will have some gusty winds behind the cold
front today as well with some 20 to 30 knot gusts at PIH, IDA
and BYI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Will have showers and isolated thunderstorms today with
temperatures cooling through the day. Snow levels will drop to 5
to 6 thousand feet overnight and Sunday. Heaviest rain will be
in zones 411, 410 and 413. Close to a 100 percent chance of
wetting rains. Lesser amounts in zones 475, 476 and 422 but
still likely wetting rains. Will begin to dry a Sunday with
Monday likely the driest day of the next week.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion