Shishmaref, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXAK69 PAFG 190118
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
518 PM AKDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet weather is expected into early next week. Rain and
higher elevation snow across northeastern AK is ending as the low
pressure lifts north across the Beaufort Sea. Breezy west winds
are expected in the vicinity of Kaktovik tonight through Friday
with northerly winds increasing through the Bering Strait late
Friday through the weekend. Low stratus and fog prevail across the
Arctic Coast through at least Saturday. Light diurnal rain
showers across the Seward Pen and YK Delta this afternoon diminish
by late Friday as a cooler and drier air mass build into the
area. After a nice stretch of weather to close out the work week,
light rain chances return to the southeast interior on Saturday
and continue through early next week.
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mostly dry tonight and Friday with temperatures in mid to upper
50s Friday, then upper 40s to low 50s this weekend.
- Increasing clouds with light rain showers developing overnight on
Friday in the southeast Interior through early next week.
- Temperatures will be on the downward trend beginning later this
weekend with freezing low temperatures early next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet weather continues with only isolated showers along the West
Coast ending Friday.
- Temperatures will be in the low 50s across coastal areas and mid
50s across inland areas Friday, then drop into the mid-upper   40s
this weekend as increasing north winds usher in a cooler and  drier
air mass.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Rain/snow ending tonight along the eastern Arctic Coast with gusty
 west winds continuing through Friday morning near Kaktovik. Snow
accumulations less than 1 inch.
- Areas of low stratus and fog will persist where onshore flow
prevails.
- Temperatures will mainly be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows
throughout the weekend.
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite imagery shows a northwest to southeast oriented
area of clear skies stretching across interior Alaska between two
areas of cloudy and unsettled weather. A closed low over the
Beaufort Sea is deepening as it lifts north away from the coastline,
but westerly gusts to 35-40 mph are expected this evening near
Kaktovik that gradually diminish on Friday. The second area of
unsettled weather is isolated showers near the Seward Pen and YK
Delta that shift west and diminish over by late Friday. Valley fog
developed this morning (particularly over relatively warm river
water) and is possible again tonight under the axis of clear skies.
Otherwise, generally status quo weather is expected through Friday.
For this weekend, onshore flow and associated low stratus and areas
of fog are expected to shift from the eastern Arctic Coast to the
western Arctic Coast. A weak low pressure currently over the Gulf of
Alaska pivots north late on Friday bringing increasing clouds and
light rain chances across the southeast interior. Saturday looks
somewhat wetter than Sunday, but generally damp weather is expected
both days. Farther north, downslope flow off the Brooks Range should
result in mostly sunny skies prevailing across the northern interior
with areas of valley fog overnight. The West Coast looks to be cool
and mostly dry this weekend with northerly winds ushering in a
noticeably drier air mass.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonable temperatures persist through Friday in the mid to
upper 50s. Temperatures this weekend will be in the lower 50s and
there will be shower chances, with the highest chances on
Saturday as a front approaches from the southeast. Min RHs will be
around 45 to 55% on Friday, then around 60% this weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is no concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A trough pattern persists into late this weekend into early next
week. This will support the return of cooler temperatures, with
daily highs in the 40s along the Coast and Interior. Elsehwere,
temperatures in the 30s along North Slope and Arctic Coast.
Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a series of low pressure
systems tracking south of the Aleutians and into the Gulf of
Alaska through early next week, with varying solutions on the
timing and strengths of each system. Nonetheless, it will keep
much of the Interior rather quiet, outside of some nuisance
rain/snow chances (10-20%) across Northern Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-815-854-857-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Kutta/Lewis/Perez

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion