Shokan, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS61 KALY 051745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After morning clouds and fog dissipate, today will be a warm
and humid day across the region with a partly to mostly sunny
sky. An approaching cold front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms to the region on Saturday and some storms may
contain gusty winds. Behind this frontal boundary, cooler and
less humid air will move into the region for Sunday with
another prolonged stretch of dry and comfortable weather
anticipated into much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:
-With a warm and humid air mass back in place across the region,
 thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will be capable of
 producing damaging winds on Saturday afternoon for southeastern
 areas.
As of 155 AM EDT...A weakening frontal boundary continues to
allow for a band of showers across far eastern NY and western Ne
England. With little instability in place, there hasn`t been
any thunder in our area overnight and these showers will be
exiting to the east over the next hour or two. While some
heavier bursts have been occurring, rainfall hasn`t been
excessive and has been beneficial.
IR satellite imagery shows breaks quickly developing behind the
main band of showers, although some fog has been developing
across sheltered valley areas over western/central NY and
northern PA and this will likely occur across our area as well,
especially for spots that saw decent rainfall earlier last
evening. Through daybreak, some patchy fog may occur, although
it should dissipate after sunrise and should be all gone towards
the mid morning hours.
The frontal boundary that is crossing the area is dissipating
and there won`t be much of an air mass change. As a result, it
will be a rather warm and humid day (especially for early
September standards) with valley areas getting in the low 80s by
afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be
in the 60s, so no fire weather concerns today with a muggy air
mass in place.
A large upper level trough will be digging across the Great
Lakes and will be sending a surface cold front towards the area
for Saturday. Ahead of this approaching boundary, a pre-frontal
trough could allow for a few showers as early as this evening
into tonight for northern areas, but the better chance is likely
on Saturday. This frontal boundary will be taking its time
crossing the region and it may slow down as a wave of low
pressure develops along the front. The exact frontal timing is
somewhat uncertain, which is allowing for some different
solutions in the CAMs. While some showers are possible across
northwestern areas early on Saturday, the best chance for
heavier showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern
areas by Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Areas south
and east of the Capital Region should have some surface-based
instability, with 3km HRRR and NAMNest both suggesting 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE for Dutchess, Litchfield and Berkshire counties for
late Saturday. With strong upper level dynamics in place, there
should be plenty of shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear in the 40 kt
range. Some strong storms continue to be possible as a line of
thunderstorms look to develop, although it will likely be
limited to just these far southeastern areas and into the rest
of New England and the northern mid Atlantic States. SPC
continues the marginal risk for severe storms for our eastern
areas for Saturday.  Temps should spike into the 70s ahead of
the front, although they look to fall once the boundary comes
through. This makes highs tricky for Saturday, as some western
areas may wind up staying in the 60s if the front crosses
earlier in the day.
Behind the front, showers will be ending west of east on
Saturday night, although they may linger slightly thanks to the
wave of low pressure on the front. They should be all done by
Sunday morning, with noticeably cooler and less humid air in
place over the region. Temps on Sunday will only reach the 60s
to low 70s for most areas.
Much of next week looks dry and seasonable. Highs will only
reach into the low to mid 70s for valley areas with high
pressure in control. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
Some upper 30s can`t be ruled out in the Adirondacks, but
widespread frost/freeze isn`t expected quite yet. Humidity
levels look fairly low through the week. The only threat for
showers will be for Wednesday night across the Adirondacks
thanks to a northern stream shortwave, although moisture looks
limited. Otherwise, it will stay dry with a partly to mostly
clear sky through the entire week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...With cloud bases beginning to reach and rise
above 3000 ft and coverage becoming more few-sct, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon into
tonight. Some MVFR stratus/stratocu could redevelop at some
sites late tonight into tomorrow morning, especially at KPSF. A
few showers could also pass across some sites tonight but due to
limited coverage and uncertainty with timing, did not include
any VCSH wording at this time. Any shower that does occur would
be brief. MVFR conditions should begin to develop between
15-18z/Sat when the next round of showers and possible
thunderstorms overspread the sites. Showers and thunderstorms
may hold off at KPOU until after 18z/Sat. South to southwesterly
winds around 10 kt are expected through this afternoon with
occasional gusts to around 20 kt. Winds will decrease to less
than 10 kt at all sites tonight, except at KALB. This could lead
to a period of LLWS at KGFL/KPSF/KPOU between 02-07z/Sat as
winds at 2000 feet increase to 35-40 kt. Wind will become
variable on Saturday at less than 10 kt.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion