Shumway, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

519
FXUS63 KILX 060625
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
125 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool conditions this weekend will give way to much warmer
  weather in the week ahead.
- Our stretch of unusually dry weather will span through mid-
  September, at least.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(through next Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a deep, upper-level low
positioned over the Hudson Bay with multiple shortwaves embedded
in cyclonic flow. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that
this main upper low will open and pivot poleward throughout today,
but with the embedded shortwaves digging southward across the
Upper-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions. Despite these
nearby disturbances passing through, precip chances remain very
low (< 10% probability) today. The primary impact from this
pattern will be a continuation of below normal temps, with
afternoon highs near 70 F today.
Cool, dry weather will continue into Sunday as an area of
elongated surface high pressure begins to build eastward into the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions beneath the periphery of an
upstream ridge. Afternoon temperatures will once again only warm
to about 70 F.
The pattern will then become much warmer through the middle of
next week as a deep upper trough carves into the western US and
pushes an amplified ridge eastward across the central US. The
latest NBM guidance suggests mid 70s by Monday; around 80 by
Tuesday; and then mid 80s from Wednesday onward as atmospheric
blocking becomes reinforced over the Midwest. The blocking pattern
will be synonymous with continued dry weather as it not only
severs Gulf moisture from surging northward, but also shunts
Pacific moisture north and west of our area.
Concerns continue to mount for a worsening late season drought.
Much of central and southeast Illinois has received less than 50%
of its normal rainfall over the past 30 days, which amounts to
between a 1.5-3 inch deficit for most locales. This deficit will
only compound over the next 7-10 days.
MJA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle as a ridge of
high pressure begins to settle over the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. High clouds this morning will shift south and east, with
diurnal cumulus developing around midday. Surface winds will
remain westerly through Saturday with sustained speeds around 10
kts, occasionally gusting near 20 kts during the afternoon before
diminishing around sunset.
MJA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion