Shungnak, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

927
FXAK69 PAFG 202215
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly quiet, fall like weather pattern will continue across
much of Northern Alaska this weekend as isolated to scattered
showers persist. Temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend
through the start of the work week as an upper level trough works
southeast from the Arctic. With a low situated in the Gulf of
Alaska, this series of systems will continue to bring rain and
snow showers chances to much of the area through early next week.
As an Arctic trough axis works east across the state Monday into
Tuesday, snow levels will drop and support chances for snow across
higher elevations of the Interior as snow showers continue across
the Alaska Range, Brooks Range, and North Slope. A more active
pattern may develop thereafter, with the potential for a more
organized system moving in later next week. More on that below.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered rain showers through the weekend across
  the Interior as temperatures see a gradual cooling trend.
- Rain continues in the Alaska Range, with snow above 4000 feet.
- Arctic trough passage later in the day Monday into Tuesday
  will support more robust precipitation chances as snow levels
  drop to 1000 feet or less around and west of Fairbanks, and
  1000-2500 feet from Fairbanks south and east.
- Light snow possible in the White Mountains and hills
  around Fairbanks, more likely in the Alaska Range passes.
- Highs in the 40s/50s this weekend, dropping to the mid to upper
  40s Monday and Tuesday. Widespread frost/freeze conditions more
  likely starting Monday and Tuesday nights.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated showers across Western Alaska into early next week.
- Arctic trough arriving Monday will drop temperatures for much
  of next week as precipitation chances continue.
- Highs will be warmest today in the 40s/50s, dropping to the low
  to mid 40s for Monday and Tuesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Onshore flow keeps stratus and areas of fog across the North
  Slope and Brooks Range.
- Arctic trough arriving Monday will bring light snow to the
  Western Arctic Coast, with snowfall amounts around a T-2".
- Light snow will continue its progression east Monday through
  the Brooks Range, shifting east Tuesday, with amounts around
  1-3".
- Snow showers persist across the North Slope and Brooks Range
  for Tuesday.
- Highs in the mid to upper 30s along the Arctic Coast, 20s to low
  30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery over Northern Alaska shows a
mix of sun and clouds as a broad upper level troughing pattern
continues across the state this weekend. In this regime, we are
tracking three lows: one in the Gulf of Alaska, another further
north over the Beaufort Sea, and a third in the Bering Sea.
Moisture transport into the Interior from that Bering Sea low will
keep isolated showers going through the weekend with more
organized precipitation chances expected in the Alaska Range, as
snow generally stays above 4000 feet. Early next week, the Arctic
low further north will strengthen and send an arctic trough
southward across the North Slope and West Coast, leading to
noticeably cooler temperatures as colder air continues to build
into the Interior throughout the day Monday. This trough passage
Monday into Tuesday will support higher rain chances across much
of the Interior, with higher elevations seeing snowfall. Snow
levels will drop to 1000 feet or less around and west of
Fairbanks, 1000-2500 feet from Fairbanks south and east. Best
chances for accumulating snowfall will remain confined to the
White Mountains and potentially the hills around Fairbanks, with
any minor impacts likely centered around any light accumulation
along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the Alaska Range.
Heading into Tuesday, that arctic trough will continue its
progression east through the Eastern Interior, Brooks Range, and
Eastern Arctic Coast as isolated to scattered rain and high
elevation snow showers persist. Snow totals overall with this
system will continue to remain light overall, around a T-3" where
expected.
The most noticeable change with this arctic trough will be the
coldest temperatures across the Interior we have seen so far this
fall, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected beginning
Monday and Tuesday nights. Fairbanks is currently in the running
for seeing a top 10 latest ever first freeze date, with records
dating back to 1905. Stay tuned next week to see which day it ends
up being.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
Cooler and unsettled weather will continue through the extended
forecast, with a low working east through the Bering Sea into the
Gulf of Alaska for Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, supporting
isolated to scattered precipitation chances across Northern
Alaska. Persistent onshore flow across the North Slope should keep
snow showers going through the end of next week. On Friday,
models continue honing in on a strong low in Eastern Russia which
has the potential for a few different tracks as it works over into
Alaska. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensemble members are all showing
the potential for an Interior Alaska track, which would
subsequently support widespread accumulating snowfall region wide.
The main caveat to this is the uncertainty in the strength and
position of this system, leading to low confidence this far out.
The latest operational runs of the ECMWF continue to favor that
track through the Interior, while the GFS in sharp contrast takes
the system southeast from Russia across Southwest Alaska, keeping
the bulk of rain and snow away from the Interior. The biggest
thing we will continue to watch for is how strong a ridge of high
pressure ends up being behind that low in the Gulf of Alaska late
next week, as that will be the main driving factor for where this
systems end up going. We will continue to monitor this evolving
pattern through the week as we track the latest.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&
$$

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion