Sieper, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS64 KLCH 211127
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the region
each afternoon today through Wednesday providing some relief to the
abnormally dry conditions across the region.
- A cold front will push through the region Thursday with drier and
somewhat cooler air moving into the region Friday into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Calm winds and a humid near surface environment will
support some patchy fog across the region through the early morning
although high clouds streaming across the area on northwesterly flow
aloft may limit this potential. Any fog that develops will dissipate
by 9 AM.
A weak upper level wave will combine with surging mid level gulf
moisture and daytime heating to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms from late this morning through early this evening. The
wave will be slow to advance eastward and will likely still be in
close enough proximity to support another round of afternoon storms
Monday afternoon.
The combination of increased cloud cover and convection will hold
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90, but dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s will make it feel sticky even where rain isn`t
occurring.
Jones
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper level ridging centered over south Texas will
build east into the region Tuesday which may offer some weak
suppression of afternoon storms although guidance is still depicting
scattered afternoon activity. This ridge will be quickly shunted off
to the south Wednesday ahead of what early indications indicate will
be a cold front with a noticeable change in airmass in it`s wake. The
front itself is currently expected to push through the region
Thursday accompanied by another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Relative cold air advection on northerly winds behind
the front on Friday will keep afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints falling into the mid 60s. Guidance has a long
history of significant early season airmass changes in the long
range that gradually moderate as the event approaches so will
continue to watch this frontal boundary as the week progresses.
Jones
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered shower activity with a couple of embedded thunderstorms
is ongoing along and south of the I-10 corridor, mainly affect LCH
and BPT this morning. This convection should continue through the
morning hours, likely expanding in coverage a bit towards the
Acadiana terminals after sunrise. By midday, scattered activity
should be expanding further inland towards AEX. At the same time,
its likely that the BPT/LCH area will be rather worked over and
convection should be largely done by the early afternoon. Convection
will likely persist near AEX and possibly the Acadiana area
through the afternoon and into the evening hours, with all
convection tapering off with sunset. Away front convection, light
mainly SE winds and VFR CIGs are expected throughout the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
coastal waters as well as the coastal lakes and bays each day
through Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves across the
region. Outside of storms, onshore flow of 10-15 knots will prevail.
A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday turning
winds offshore through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the region each day through Wednesday as an upper level
disturbance moves across the region. Outside of storms, light
southeasterly winds will prevail with minimum RH values ranging from
50-70% each afternoon. The increased rainfall this week should
improve the abnormally dry conditions that have developed across the
region over the last couple of weeks.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  68  91  68 /  40  10  20   0
LCH  88  73  88  74 /  60  20  50  10
LFT  89  72  89  72 /  40  10  40   0
BPT  88  74  88  75 /  70  20  50  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion