Silverpeak, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

187
FXUS65 KVEF 211111
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
411 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms persist each day
  through the forecast period, as anomalous moisture remains over
  the region.
* Today, best chances of showers and thunderstorms exist south and
  east of Interstate 15.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.
A cut-off low off the coast of central California will slowly push
southward over the next few days. With the monsoonal high positioned
over north-central Mexico, this results in a southwest flow aloft,
as the Desert Southwest sits between these two systems. Over the
next few days, the cut-off low will continue to inch toward the
coast as it pushes southward. As it does so, several instances of
vorticity maxima will shred off of the low and move along the flow
aloft, allowing for enhanced instability over our forecast area.
This is relevant, because anomalous moisture will remain in-place
over our forecast area through the week, with PWATs between 150 and
200 percent of normal. As a result, there exist slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming work week,
favoring the higher terrain. There remains low confidence in the
forecast mid-to-late week, as shower and thunderstorm chances are
highly dependent on the exact trajectory of the aforementioned
closed low as it moves inland. Otherwise, temperatures will remain
at-or-slightly below normal, with generally light afternoon breezes.
Today, best chances of showers and thunderstorms exist south and
east of Interstate 15, as this is where the best instability exists
(with 85-100 kt winds at 250mb and modest vorticity advection).
Clearing skies this morning will allow for CAPE values between 250
and 500 J/kg and 500mb shear between 20 and 30 kts. Expect generally
light-to-moderate rainfall with occasional lightning in San
Bernardino, southern Clark, and Mohave counties today, but cannot
rule out locally heavy rainfall and more frequent lightning with
storms that form over the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
winds will persist through mid-morning before veering to a more
southeasterly direction by late morning. Breezy southwesterly winds
will pick up in the afternoon with sustained speeds of 10 to 12
knots along with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will remain
out of the southwest into tonight, although the gustiness will
diminish after sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period with mid-to-high level clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL
spreading into the area this afternoon, and lingering into tonight.
An isolated shower may develop along the Peach Spring corridor after
00Z, but no precipitation is anticipated in the Vegas Valley.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain
relatively light through this morning at regional TAF sites before
increasing this afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected at
most locations after 20Z. Scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected south and east of the Interstate 15
corridor after 22Z, with the activity continuing into Monday
morning. VCHS/-SHRA has been included for the Colorado River Valley
TAF sites, but shower chances remain too low to include at KDAG. A
few isolated showers are also possible in the northern Owens Valley
late this afternoon and evening, though probabilities are likewise
too low for VCSH to be included at KBIH. Elsewhere across the
region, VFR conditions will prevail with mid-to-high level clouds
with bases AOA 15kft AGL spreading into the area this afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion