Skidmore, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

887
FXUS63 KSGF 110544
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20% chance of showers and storms mainly south and west of
  Springfield late this afternoon and evening.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least
  this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Water vapor and upper level analysis show a closed low over CA
with an upper ridge axis across the plains. A thunderstorm
complex in the plains last night decayed over eastern KS this
morning with a few remnant showers remaining east of ICT.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s so far this
afternoon with dew points in the mid to upper 50s.
CAMS have backed off quite a bit from earlier runs on convection
in the west this afternoon and evening, but a few members still
bring in some weaker convection, mainly west of Springfield late
this afternoon and evening. Have trimmed back pops a bit to
basically 30% or less for the western CWA. Overnight lows should
be warmer in the low to mid 60s for most locations.
On Thursday, we see the upper ridge start to build further north
and east into the forecast area. Temperatures should be a bit
warmer in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Temperatures are expected to get hot Friday into much of next
week, with well above normal temperatures through the forecast
period. In fact several record highs will be approached from
Friday through Tuesday(see climate section for those records).
There is pretty high confidence in the temperature forecast
through the period with several reasons supporting this:
1) Ensemble means are suggesting 850mb temps in the upper teens
to low 20s C. A local study we`ve conducted here correlate with
temperatures in the 92 to 98 degree range for 850mb temperatures
above 19 deg C and a mostly clear sky. This range is the
25th-75th percentile range.
2) ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for MaxT show a 90th to 95th
percentile for temperatures late this week into early next week
for the area.
3) NBM 25th-75th percentile range for temperatures are only a
few degrees within one another suggesting a higher confidence
forecast.
With upper ridge axis in place over the area and upper energy
remaining away from the CWA, most precipitation chances would
have to be pulse in nature. While PW values increase slightly
over the area, higher moisture will remain to our east. For this
reason, we are keeping pops below 15% in the long term.
The 8 to 14 day outlook continues trend of continuing the above
normal temperatures. Ensemble data suggest a 5 to 8 degree above
normal range with normal highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 11:
KSGF: 96/2000
KUNO: 96/1953
September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KVIH: 98/1897
KUNO: 96/1980
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KSGF: 102/1893
KUNO: 99/1954
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion