Slassoh Cemetery Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

902
FXUS61 KOKX 141940
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic will drift farther away
through tonight. A cold front then passes through on Wednesday with
high pressure in control through the weekend. A cold front will move
through Sunday night into Monday, with weak high pressure returning
on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Isentropic lift and low level omega will combine with low level
moisture for areas of drizzle and/or light to briefly moderate rain
mainly for eastern and coastal areas this afternoon into tonight.
The lift then exits south overnight with dry conditions and
diminishing cloud cover and winds. NBM was used for low
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front approaches in the morning, then shifts through the
forecast area during the afternoon. No rainfall with its passage as
moisture will be lacking. The cold advection should help kick up
wind gusts by late in the day into the night. Winds probably do not
decouple late Wednesday night, so while cold advection will still be
ongoing at that time, frost is not anticipated for those
northernmost zones that are expected to have temperatures fall into
the mid 30s. Low temperatures across the rest of the area will be
mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the NW Thursday into
Thursday night. Continued dry weather for the period with below
normal temperatures. The pressure gradient should weaken enough for
light to calm winds over western areas of the forecast area, so with
the chilly air mass in place, some frost may form for areas NW of
the city late Thursday night. Could eventually need a frost advisory
for at least Orange County as frost/freeze headlines would be issued
for events up through the end of the month.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend. It will
  remain somewhat breezy on Fri due to the pressure gradient between
  high pressure building from west and strengthening low pressure
  meandering out over the open Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs only
  in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temps Fri night could fall to 35-40
  inland and into 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to the
  north and vertically stacked high pressure builds over and east
  of the area. Temperatures should reach 65-70 on Sat and 70-75 on
  Sunday.
* A cold front and associated closed low aloft will bring showers
  mainly Sunday night into Monday. NBM onto the idea that the slower
  GFS vs faster ECMWF solution may pan out during this time frame.
  High temps Mon/Tue will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic drifts farther east
through tonight as high pressure remains to the northwest. A
cold front passes through Wednesday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings persist into early this evening, 00Z/01Z, possibly
an hour or two later. Once ceilings improve to VFR, conditions
remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will remain northerly through the forecast with occasional
gusts to around 20 kt at the NYC metro terminals and northwest, with
more frequent gusts 20-25 kt to the east. Gusts end toward sunset
with winds diminishing to under 10 kt. Winds increase during
Wednesday, and become gusty, backing a little toward NNW during the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of VFR this evening may be off an hour or two.
Amendments possible for varying flight categories into this
evening.
Wind gusts will likely be more occasional this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. Late day showers possible Sunday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters through Wednesday night
as seas remain elevated through the period. Winds diminish tonight
into Wednesday morning, but then increase again behind the passage
of a cold front in the afternoon. Will likely need to eventually
extend the advisory here for several more periods.
Elsewhere, SCA conds into early evening. Gusts may still
occasionally gust to 25 kt for an hour or two after the current
advisory expiration time for some of the waters, but felt it was not
worth extending the advisory in time. Then after an extended period
of sub-advisory conditions, it appears there is a chance for
additional advisory-level gusts at some point late Wednesday
afternoon, but more likely Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance
has trended a little weaker with winds, so with this mainly a 3rd
period and beyond event, will allow the night shift to post
advisories as needed.
SCA cond on the ocean (N flow G25-30kt and seas 4-6 ft) should last
into daytime Fri. Then quiet cond last until Sunday afternoon/night,
when S flow may gust up to 25 kt and seas build to 5-7 ft on
the ocean ahead of a cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Based on available observations, it appears that tides are currently
running generally lower than previously forecast. It`s even possible
that levels fall just short of minor flooding benchmarks at
Lindenhurst late this afternoon. Will leave the advisory up for SW
Suffolk County as confidence to cancel it altogether is not high
enough. Statements remain unchanged, with isolated instances of
flooding possible. Offshore flow and less tidal piling then mitigate
any further coastal flooding threats for at least the next few days.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion