Smiley Lake Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS63 KDLH 141835
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
135 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for light rain showers this evening, most likely over the I-
35 corridor and NW WI. Accumulations should largely be light, less
than 0.25".
- Temperatures gradually warming through the work week, hottest on
Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s.
- Next chance for rain late Wednesday through Thursday with
  scattered shower chances into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Overcast skies today should turn into some light rain showers over
portions of the Northland this evening as a little ridge running
disturbance quickly passes over the Upper Midwest. With a fair
amount of dry air to the north, there will likely be plenty of virga
initially, with the best chance of measurable rainfall accumulations
in the southern third of the CWA. Even these should be light, mostly
around or less than a tenth of an inch.
As that disturbance passes, upper level ridging should continue to
elongate over the Plains and Midwest through late week, leading to
increasing temperatures and dewpoints. By Friday, temperatures are
expected to be well above normal in the 60s and 70s during the
afternoon, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. This increase in
moisture alongside an ejecting Colorado Low will help create an
atmospheric utopia for another chance at rain later this week. Most
models are in fairly good agreement on warm frontal rain pushing
into the area from this system into and through Thursday morning,
which should likely be the heaviest rain out of this system as it
will have the best moisture access and thermodynamics. The first
round of rain could bring a tenth to three quarters of an inch of
rainfall to the area, likely highest in the MN Arrowhead, but exact
system track could still change. This low pressure system should
continue to influence our sensible weather through the weekend, with
the cold front passing through on Friday and then wrap around
showers on the backside wandering over Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures should fall in the CAA on the backside of this system,
and its not out of the question that a couple snowflakes could mix
in through the weekend as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C.
High pressure is generally favored for early next week but there are
large discrepancies on magnitude and timing with some models keeping
us dry for a couple days while other solutions bring another quick
round of precipitation in from the Canadian Plains. In all solutions
however, we generally stay in a moderately active pattern through
next week with more chances of rain, with a couple outliers bringing
some frozen precipitation into the mix.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions expected through this evening at all terminals. There
could be some light rain that impacts BRD, DLH, and HYR this
evening, but is not expected to lead to appreciable visibility
limitations. BRD and HYR could see some MVFR ceilings overnight into
Wednesday morning. Expect mostly light and variable winds.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Mostly light northeast winds today continue into tomorrow. A couple
afternoon gusts up to 15 knots are possible for the head of the lake
Wednesday afternoon. Generally waves should remain at 1 foot or
less. A 20-30% chance for some very light rain tonight but no
thunderstorms are expected. Winds become southeast Thursday with a
few gusts up to 20 knots possible which should lead to some bumpy
conditions but nothing too much crazier. Another round of rain is
likely Thursday especially along the North Shore.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion