Smith Cemetery, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

140
FXUS61 KPBZ 261404
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1004 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The last of the showers are expected to exit the region this
morning. Expect clearing and dry conditions across the area
through the morning. Another low pressure system may bring
additional precip to the southeast portion of the forecast area
by Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier, warmer for today
- Areas of fog possible again tonight north of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------
Visibility across the area has mostly improved as of 10am this
morning with mixing. A few observations suggest localized
pockets of more dense fog remaining across eastern Ohio, but
this too should mix out within the next hour, so opted to let
the advisory expire.
Previous discussion...
The current conditions across the area this morning feature the
500MB trough finally beginning to cross the forecast area. This
will bring an end to the last round of showers moving through.
Lingering precip chances will be in the northern WV region
through noon. Elsewhere, conditions will begin to clear out
with warmer temperatures through the day.
Heading into tonight, there will likely be another fog threat
with the main impact being over the northern counties. That
being case due to a low pressure system tracking up the coast
and will spread cloud cover over the southern portion of the
forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Potential moisture influx Saturday could lead to showers
  southeast of Pittsburgh
- Dry conditions return for Sunday, warmer too
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Saturday period will feature a low pressure system tracking
up the east coast. The low will advect moisture over the ridges
and into the southeastern portion of the forecast area. There
is some question to the track and how well moisture will make it
over the Appalachian Range. That said, the NBM pros are giving
between 30% and 40% for 0.25 inches or more of precip over the
northern WV area. The southern PA counties along the WV border
give a paltry 20% for 0.25 inches. The low will lift off to the
northeast by Saturday night into Sunday. The cloud cover of the
exiting low will likely keep any fog from developing Saturday
night, at least keep widespread dense fog from developing. The
additional cloud cover will keep the southeastern counties quite
insulated, and in that case, warmer than normal. This is 5 to
10 degrees warmer than normal but mainly for the southeastern
counties in northern WV and southern PA.
By Sunday, high pressure is expected to take control with a
period of dry weather expected. Temperatures will be on the warm
up as well for Sunday. The impact of clearing skies will keep
temperatures almost 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Larger variance period that will be predicated on coastal low
  and tropical movement along the Atlantic Coast
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble cluster analysis shows forecast outcomes to begin
diverging notably Sunday into early next week due to large
variance in the development/path of a Carolina coastal low AS
WELL AS whichever way tropical storm develops occurs in the
western Atlantic. At this time, the two more likely scenarios
are: the low/southeast trough remains stationary and draws rain
showers to the southeast portion of the CWA while increased
cloud cover limits diurnal heating; strong ridging builds over
the Great Lakes that shunts tropical action south/east and
maintains dry weather with temperature trending well above
normal.
The current forecast more straddles these two scenarios so there
likely will be changes in the coming days to trend both
temperature/precipitation chances up/down if and when model
output begins to converge on the most likely solution.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Efficient radiative cooling under clearing skies and residual
low-level moisture have combined forces this morning, allowing
widespread LIFR fog and stratus to settle in to start the 12z
TAF cycle. Conditions will remain this poor until mid morning,
at which point enough heating/mixing should be available to lift
and scatter the fog and stratus back to MVFR and eventually VFR
levels. VFR then prevails through the remainder of the day under
building high pressure.
CU rule and model soundings indicate a broken diurnal cumulus
layer should persist through the day, until diminishing around
sunset. Mid and high level clouds will likely increase overnight
on the northern side of a wave of low pressure across the
Carolinas/Mid Atlantic region. This cloud cover could result in
less fog development Friday night, but potential is still there
for patchy development especially in areas farther north and
west (FKL/ZZV).
.OUTLOOK....
Restrictions in showers are possible Saturday mainly SE of PIT
as a surface low tracks NE along the coast. Otherwise, VFR is
expected through early next week under high pressure.
Restriction potential returns SE of PIT Tuesday ahead of a
coastal low.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...WM/MLB/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak/WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion