Smith Dam Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS63 KPAH 112256
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
556 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally
  mild.
- Rain/thunderstorm chances may develop by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Warm and sunny day today across the region as we sit
synoptically in a Omega block style pattern with a surface high
pressure ridge overhead. Dry conditions can be expected to
continue for the next several days with temperatures warming up
in the afternoon a few degrees. Ground fog will be possible
again over the next few nights as the cool night air clashes
with the warm ground and nearby bodies of relatively warm water.
By Friday that omega block finally gets shunted eastward as
westerly jet momentum builds into the Pacific Northwest and Gulf
of Alaska with enough force to get things moving. There are then
varying model projections between GFS/ECMWF members that show a
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest with moisture
return ahead of it with a low-level cyclone developing nearby
or just to the north. Depending on exactly how it times out it
could be a bit of a thunderstorm pattern for us with shear and
instability parameters worth being mindful of. A time-lagged
ensemble of deterministic models shows quite different
conditions, unsurprisingly, based on the exact timing/shape of
these features. But it does look to set up a synoptic pattern
that is a little more active overall with deeper troughs and
better moisture return.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Lingering mid-level clouds, mainly near KMVN will scatter out
tonight giving way to mostly clear skies across the entire
region. Patchy shallow fog remains possible Sunday morning;
otherwise, VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are forecast
through the rest of the period. Winds will be east to southeast
around 4 to 5 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion