Smithville Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

092
FXUS63 KILX 071909
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
209 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front has pushed across central Illinois and will result
  in a return to more seasonable temps (highs in the upper 60s to
  mid 70s) Wednesday though Friday.
- Overnight lows will dip into the 30s for portions of central and
  east central Illinois Wednesday night and Thursday night. Some
  of the coldest spots could see some patchy frost.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
This afternoon, a cold front has pushed through central and
southeast Illinois. North winds are advecting temps in the 60s
into central Illinois along with dew points in the 50s and 40s.
Lingering low level cyclonic flow and shallow moisture behind the
front will produce a corridor of low ceilings, and cannot
completely rule out some patchy drizzle at times, though the bulk
of the precip has ended. Skies should generally clear from the
north this evening as 925mb anticyclonic flow starts to build into
the region. Temps will fall into the 40s or low 50s area-wide
overnight.
High pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies today will
settle over the Great Lakes and Midwest through the latter half
of the week. Cooler, more seasonable, conditions will be in place
under the influence of the high. Temps will top out in the upper
60s to lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday, followed by low to mid
70s Friday as winds turn back southerly behind the ridge axis.
Meanwhile, lows will drop into the lower 40s Thursday and Friday
mornings with a few spots dipping into the 30s. NBM probabilities
for dipping below 38 degrees is roughly 50-70 percent from a
Bloomington to Paris line north Thursday morning. The probability
jumps to 70-90 percent across portions of east central Illinois
Friday morning. Given these temps along with an otherwise
favorable radiational cooling setup both mornings, frost remains a
possibility.
Aloft, a strong ridge is expected to build through the latter half
of the week across the western CONUS, and is set to shift east
over the weekend. Attendant 850mb thermal ridge will begin to
shift east to and then across the Mississippi Valley over the
weekend and into early next week. This will allow temps to return
to well above normal starting Saturday when temps warm to near 80
degrees. Low 80s will be in place for most of the area Sunday
through Tuesday.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
IFR ceilings persist across much of the area, but a slow
improvement to MVFR is expected during the first several hours of
the period, followed by a transition to scattering
clouds/clearing skies by this evening (around 00-03z) after which
point VFR conditions will prevail. A few lingering showers are
present, and these may occasionally result in MVFR visbys during
the first few hours of the period. Winds will be out of the north-
northeast around 10 kts for much of the period.
Erwin
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion