Smyer, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS64 KLUB 042303
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
603 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- Very warm today with near-record high temperatures expected
   this afternoon.
- Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with daily chances
   for rain continuing each day from Friday through early next
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Very warm temperatures are still on track for this afternoon with
near record highs for much of the region. Surface cyclogenesis and
troughing in the lee of the Rockies today will promote low end breezy
downsloping westerly winds. A cold front was currently draped across
the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle nearly stationary at this
time. Surface winds are expected to remain out of the east on the
cool side of the boundary keeping temperatures from reaching near
record values this afternoon. The front is then expected to retreat
back northward later this afternoon. The weather pattern will then
begin to change tonight through early next week with mostly cooler
conditions expected with possible precipitation chances. Mid-level
winds tonight will begin to back to the southwest ahead of an
initial short wave trough. However, this initial short wave trough
will bring mostly cloud cover and little in the way of any
precipitation. Mid and high level cloud cover will increase early on
Friday with this short wave. At the same time, the aforementioned
from will slowly ooze its way through the region during the day on
Friday afternoon. We will see a combination of lift at the mid
levels and from the advancing frontal boundary but lower levels of
the atmosphere will be fairly dry. This will result in low end
mentionable chances of precipitation for Friday afternoon. The
increase in cloud cover combined with the advancing front will lead
to a troubling maximum temperature forecast for Friday. A strong
gradient of temperatures will likely exist with very warm
temperatures across the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains
with much cooler temperatures elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
At the moment, tropical storm Lorena was churning off the coast of
Baja Mexico in the eastern Pacific. Forecasts have changed quite a
bit recently showing less of an influence of this tropical system on
West Texas. The best chances of any precipitation now look to be
late in the weekend primarily on Sunday. The primary slug of
tropical moisture will come on Friday within the southwesterly flow
aloft. Forecast IVT vectors will peak early on Friday with a notable
decrease through the weekend where previous forecasts showed more of
a continuous flow of moisture. The tropical system was forecast to
move inland into the southwestern US but is now anticipated to
fizzle out over Baja California. Any additional moisture from this
system will be shunted southward more into central and south Texas
through the weekend. The precipitation chances late in the weekend
will be driven by another short wave trough moving underneath a high
amplitude ridge over the Intermountain West. Low level upslope flow
combined with the approaching short wave trough will bring the
highest rain chances to the area on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion