Sophia, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS61 KRLX 281026
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
626 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure provides dry weather through next week.
Tropical system becomes a hurricane off the Florida coast by
Monday, and then turns northeast towards the Atlantic by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...
Dense fog have developed along the eastern mountains, adjacent
foothills and northern West Virginia early tonight. Expect dense
fog to spread west to affect most of WV river valleys through
Sunday morning. This fog will gradually lift into low stratus
before dissipating by mid or late morning.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a deep upper level trough over
southeast CONUS, gradually advancing east. These images show very
dry air across the southeast US, and over the OH Valley. In
addition, a surface high pressure, over the Great Lakes, builds
across the local region today. With the departure of the shortwave
that affected the area yesterday, expect dry weather conditions
through tonight. The exception will be an isolated shower along the
eastern mountains. Forecast surface analysis depicts a dry cold
front, stalling just north of the area this evening, before lifting
as a warm front north into Monday morning. This front should NOT
interrupt the dry conditions expected.
Plenty of sunshine will allow to above normal afternoon temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s across the lowlands, into the upper 60s
northeast mountains. Lower humidity and radiational cooling effects
will allow lows to dip into the mid to lower 50s tonight. These
conditions under calm flow will allow for dense fog to develop
during the overnight hours tonight, and will likely affect the
Monday morning commute.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...
Expect dry and unseasonably warm weather for the next couple of days
as a surface high pressure remains in control. On Monday,
temperatures will again be warmer than normal, with highs in the mid
80s across the lowlands ranging into the mid 60s northeast
mountains. Monday night looks warm, lacking of radiational cooling
due to cloud cover associated with outer bands from Tropical
Depression Nine (TD #9). Nighttime temperatures will depend on cloud
cover associated with TD #9 which is uncertain. Therefore,
confidence on lows for Monday and Tuesday nights may vary from
forecast.
The latest projections show TD #9 is expected to strengthen into
Tropical Storm Imelda, as it moves north over the Bahamas. Rapid
intensification is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become
a hurricane by Monday morning while offshore of the Florida coast.
By Tuesday, the latest track shows Hurricane Imelda turning east-
northeast into the Atlantic Ocean, moving away from the U.S. coast
for the remainder of the week. If this new forecast is correct, the
local region can expect reduced cloud cover and only a minimal
chance of precipitation, ensuring that dry conditions continue.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...
Following the departure of Imelda into the Atlantic, a strong but
nearly stationary surface high pressure across the NE US, extending
west and south into the OH valley, will provide dry weather conditions
through the end of the week.
Temperatures throughout the period will generally run near or
slightly above normal, with some river valley fog possible each
night mid to late in the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM Sunday...
Satellite imagery and METARs indicate dense fog is covering most
of West Virginia early this morning, causing IFR/LIFR restrictions.
The fog should burn off between 15-16Z, leading to mostly clear
skies and associated VFR conditions for the rest of the day.
Dense fog is expected to return overnight tonight, producing
IFR/LIFR restrictions mainly along river valleys.
Calm winds early this morning will become light and variable
with a northeast component today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary
from forecast this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              SUN 09/28/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Tuesday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion