South Boston Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS61 KRNK 092320
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A low
pressure system will track along the Atlantic coastline bringing
a chance of showers on Sunday. Drier weather returns by Monday
and conditions remain dry through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Areas of frost possible in the mountain valleys again
tonight.
2. Dry and cooler weather continues.
High pressure now settled into the region, resulting in clear
and dry conditions through Friday. Surface high is centered over
southern Canada this afternoon, but will shift east over New
England tonight and Friday. This will allow for cool high
pressure to wedge south along the Appalachians. High pressure
will be further enhanced by a developing low off the Carolina
coast.
Breezy northeast winds will continue through the evening,
subsiding somewhat overnight, and then continue again on Friday.
Overnight, sheltered mountain valleys should have light to calm
winds. Along with clear skies and a dry airmass, this should
allow for areas of patchy frost to develop, especially in the
Greenbrier Valley and Highlands. A Frost Advisory has been
issued to address the frost potential. Patchy dense fog will
also be possible across the mountain valleys again tonight.
Afternoon highs in upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight, low 30s to
mid 40s with similar afternoon highs again for Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
1. Coastal Low to bring a chance of precipitation for the
Piedmont of VA and NC.
Wedging from a high pressure system to the northeast will continue
but will weaken as a coastal low off the Carolinas forms and
heads north. Model guidance suggests this system will travel
along the coastline and be just west enough to bring a good
chance of precipitation for the Piedmont of Virginia through
North Carolina. The surface portion of the coastal low will
bring a considerable change in wind direction and speed. As it
moves north, winds across the region will noticeably shift from
eastward Saturday to northwesterly by Monday morning. Wind gusts
may pick up between 15- 25 mph by Sunday afternoon as the
system passes by. The rain chances will most likely begin as
early as Saturday night with total rain accumulations ranging
between 0.25-0.50 inches for the more eastern counties. While
the wind is more easterly, moisture from the Atlantic will
arrive and increase surface dew point temperatures into the 50s
and 60s. As the coastal low moves to our northeast, drier air
will move back in and allow dew points to decline a little. Air
temperatures will be mild with early morning lows in the 40s and
50s and highs in the 60s, broadly speaking.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
1. Warming trend next week as upper level ridge dominates
forecast period.
An upper level cutoff low will absorb the upper level portion of a
coastal low and move out into the Atlantic early next week. Model
guidance is a little uncertain on the exact timing, but are all in
agreement of this pattern occurring. This is followed by a large
upper level ridge that will be centered over Texas and bring a
warming trend for most of the nation, including our region. While
overall upper level flow will be from the northwest, increased 500mb
heights will support high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Dew
points will fluctuate between the 40s and 50s so the overall weather
pattern should be comfortable. No precipitation is currently
expected for most of next week due to the ridge dominating the
weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the TAF period.
Some CAM guidance brings some scattered Cumulus from the east
into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge terminals during the early
morning hours Friday. Given it`s scattered nature, it is not
expected to lead to any restrictions at this time. Some reduced
VSBYs was maintained in the LWB TAF as some river valley fog is
again expected to develop overnight. This may lead to some IFR
to LIFR VSBYs around sunrise on Friday. While the aforementioned
scattered Cumulus deck starts to fade throughout the morning
hours, some upper level cirrus is expected to push north into
the region from the southeast from storms along a frontal
boundary along the South Carolina and Georgia coastline. These
clouds are not expected to lead to any restrictions at this
time. Northeast winds overnight will slowly transition to
easterly and southeasterly through the mid morning and early
afternoon hours on Friday. While winds will remain elevated,
gusts are only expected to be in the 10-15 knot range, and
sustained winds expected in the 5-10 knot range on Friday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Extended period of dry weather becoming more likely. This will
result in widespread VFR. With a drier air mass, fog development
should become less of a concern.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/EB

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion