South Britain, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS61 KOKX 251953
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west passes through late tonight
into Friday morning. High pressure then builds in through the first
part of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front approaches from the west and is expected to pass
through during the late night hours. Lift from a prefrontal trough
and shortwave will combine with modest CAPE to produce a chance of
thunderstorms along with showers for the remainder of the day into
tonight. With a veering profile and 30-40kt winds through the mid
levels, speed and directional shear will be there to support strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms. The threat is however mitigated
by the amount of instability and unfavorable low to mid level
lapse rates. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a
marginal risk for severe weather with damaging wind gusts the
primary threat, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with
veering the low levels.
Anomalously high PWATs have been analyzed at around 2 inches this
afternoon and should remain at this level until the cold front
passes through. There is a chance of cell training as the steering
flow is fairly parallel to the approaching cold front and mid level
winds are oriented along the axis of strongest moisture transport.
Add in the convective potential, and a low chance of flash flooding
remains across the area. The speed of the cells will however be a
mitigating factor. See the hydrology section below for potential
impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering chances of a shower for Friday morning over eastern LI,
otherwise dry weather with high pressure beginning to build in
behind the departing cold front. A shortwave creates some cyclonic
flow aloft in the afternoon with low level lapse rates steepening.
Although there will be enough moisture to trigger some cu growth, it
doesn`t look deep enough for a showers as mid levels will be on a
drying trend. Perhaps a sprinkle, but will leave this out of the
forecast at this time. The cold advection won`t be strong, so it
should still feel somewhat muggy with dewpoints slowly falling
through the 60s. Above normal high temperatures expected with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Continued dry for Friday night with low
temperatures also running above normal.
High pressure keeps the daytime hours dry on Saturday although
higher level clouds will likely filter the sunshine. Chances of
light rain or showers begin Saturday night as moisture pools along a
trough to our south and a wave of low pressure tries to form along
it.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the rest of the weekend, chance of showers early Sunday, mainly
along the coast associated with a weak front moving across and an
upper level trough axis moving across. Lesser chances of showers
thereafter. Mainly dry conditions expected as weak high pressure
approaches. Forecast highs Sunday are in the low to upper 70s.
Weak high pressure and a weak pressure gradient reside over the
local area Monday into Monday night. Meanwhile areas of low
pressure, tropical waves, well south of the area will be developing
and moving more northwest. One of them will probably be Tropical
Cyclone Humberto. Chances for rain showers have lowered compared to
previous forecast but a little higher for Monday night. Mild
temperatures still expected for high temperatures Monday, upper 70s
to around 80.
Tuesday through Thursday, high pressure remains north of the region,
low pressure to the southeast of the region. There is model
uncertainty on the positions of the lows that far out in time, which
could be still tropical cyclones. Local region will have a NE flow
during this time with chances for showers. Winds appear to have
trended more gusty for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures
trending cooler than normal. Forecast highs in the 70s Tuesday trend
down into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.
Please note, for specific track and strength observational and
forecast information regarding aforementioned tropical waves and
tropical cyclones, see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front lifts well to the north this evening. A cold front
moves through late tonight into Friday.
A mix of categories from mainly MVFR and IFR, to LIFR at times at
some terminals. Even a few pockets of VFR at times for a few of the
more eastern terminals over the next few hours. A break has
developed in the shower activity, with the best chance of very
little shower activity being further south and east to begin the
evening. Additional pockets of SHRA and possible TSRA expected into
much of the evening. Thunder chances are handled mainly with PROB30
groups. Best chance for TSRA is 21Z-02Z for the NYC terminals. Any
improvement in categories will be short lived and drops back down to
IFR and LIFR tonight. Improvement to MVFR and VFR expected towards
the tail end of the Friday morning push, or immediately after.
S winds at around 8-13 kt through 0z, with a few of the coastal
terminals gusting to 20 kt at times. Wind becomes SW and then
eventually W overnight and lighter, then WNW into Friday morning at
5-10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible through this evening with changing categories
likely due to on and off showers or the presence of any TSRA.
Amendments may be needed once again late at night with lowering
categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: VFR, with winds out of the WNW.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of late day or evening showers.
Sunday and Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at the NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Tuesday: Pockets of MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front today will allow
ocean seas to build to around 5 feet tonight and a few gusts to
around 25 kt, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. With the passage of
the cold front Friday morning seas will subside. SCA remains posted
east of Fire Island from 800 PM EDT tonight to 800 AM EDT Friday.
Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels Friday through
Saturday.
The long term forecast (Sunday through Tuesday night) has
conditions below SCA thresholds on all waters Sunday through
much of Monday night. Towards early Tuesday morning, ocean seas
are forecast to build to 5 ft, and higher thereafter for Tuesday
into Tuesday night, potentially up to 8 to 9 ft. There is
uncertainty this far out in time and wave heights could
fluctuate by a foot or two with subsequent forecasts. Regarding
wind gusts, those too are forecast to reach SCA levels Tuesday
night with otherwise, sub-SCA wind gusts during the marine long
term.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall with the rest of today`s and tonight`s showers
should total less than an inch most spots, but locally up to 1.50-
2.00 inches will still be possible in the heaviest thunderstorms.
Impacts limited to mainly nuisance flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas. Cannot rule out flash flooding, but this would be
isolated in nature. Timeframe for best chances of flooding will be
early this evening until midnight.
No hydrologic issues expected thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk remains for the NYC and Long Island
ocean beaches through this evening due to near 4 to 5 ft swell
and southerly winds near 10 to 15 kts.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Friday is moderate.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 4 ft and
developing more southerly flow of near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Saturday is low.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 3 ft and light
onshore flow with more easterly component near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion