South Erie Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS61 KCLE 101120
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
720 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast United States will continue east
today and move off the New England coast tonight. A low pressure
system will move southeast through the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and weaken into a trough on Saturday night. A coastal low
will move up the East Coast Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure east of the area will allow for a clear and calm
morning to continue. This has allowed for the atmosphere to decouple
and cool into the 30s with some potential for upper 20s in interior
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania before dawn. The ongoing
Frost/Freeze headlines are generally on track and will remain valid
until 9 AM. As the surface high shifts east today, return flow into
the region will allow for southerly winds and warming conditions
into the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.
The high pressure system will shift off the East Coast tonight and a
low pressure system will dive southeast toward the area tonight into
Saturday. This system will be supported by a closed upper low that
will arrive over Lake Erie by Saturday morning. This system will
bring some showers to the region with greatest coverage near and to
the lee of Lake Erie, as there will be ample instability over the
lake with the cold, closed upper low aloft, which should extend more
potent showers into NW PA. Temperatures will be a bit more muted on
Saturday with clouds and some rain in the region and a general 60s
flavor is expected, but NW PA and extreme NE OH could underperform
60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday night into Sunday, the low pressure system and upper
low will continue to weaken and open up into a trough, which should
allow for that energy to escape east and support a low pressure
system over the East Coast. However, this coastal system will allow
for a trough to remain in the area, which will likely continue to be
a focus point for showers, especially for the eastern half of the
forecast area. As the coastal low pulls out to sea on Monday, the
trough over the area will also get pulled east and allow for some
high pressure to build into the region. Therefore, the forecast
trend on Monday will be dry. Temperatures in the dry portions of the
forecast area will be above normal with clear and dry conditions in
a drought area, supporting 70s. For the areas with clouds and rain
chances, temperatures will be near normal in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-week forecast appears seasonable at this time with a cold
front moving through the area on Tuesday and high pressure building
from the northwest for Wednesday and beyond. The question for
Tuesday is whether or not there will be enough moisture to support
some rain development with the cold frontal passage. At this time,
the atmosphere appears fairly dry to be concerned about a widespread
rain threat for the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, the question
will be how cold aloft will the new air mass be behind the cold
front and with the incoming high pressure system. If 850 mb
temperatures can be near or below zero, then there may be enough
lake instability to generate at least some lake effect clouds, if
not a couple of showers. However, limited moisture over the region
seems to suggest that any rain would be minor. Temperatures will be
in the 60s with 50s in NE OH/NW PA with the lake clouds and
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with mainly VFR to
persist through the TAF period, though some MVFR ceilings/vsbys
are possible with a weak cold front towards the end of the TAF
period Saturday morning. For today, high cirrus will continue to
arrive east into the area, followed by a mid- deck around
4-5kft later this evening and overnight. Some rain showers are
also possible late tonight into Saturday morning, particularly
closer to the lakeshore (TOL/CLE/ERI).
Winds are generally light and favoring a slight southeast
direction this morning, 5 knots or less. Winds will shift
towards the south to southwest later this morning and afternoon,
7 to 10 knots. Winds will begin to shift towards the northwest
behind a weak cold front towards the end of the TAF period on
Saturday, around 5 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Saturday
through Sunday, particularly across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally speaking for October, quiet marine conditions are
expected into early next week with no headlines anticipated.
Southerly flow will increase to near 20 knots late tonight into
Saturday, though the offshore nature of the winds should
preclude the need for any Small Craft Advisories as the
strongest winds will be confined to the open waters. Will need
to monitor wind and wave trends late Sunday into Monday as east
to northeast flow of 15 to 20 knots develops across Lake Erie.
At this time, waves are anticipated to be just below 4 feet.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the potential for
waterspouts Saturday into Sunday as a weak area of low pressure
lingers across Lake Erie underneath a relatively cool upper air
mass compared to the lake where surface temperatures remain
above average, in the upper 60s.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>013-
     017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion