South Fort Myers Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

368
FXUS62 KTBW 072351
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
751 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Easterly flow continued today across west central and southwest
Florida. Similar to previous days, we saw scattered showers and
isolated storms moving from east to west across the area. Some gusty
winds to around 25 knots was reported in some of the stronger storms
over southwest Florida. Radar trends are already showing activity
slowing down and quiet weather is expected overnight. Overnight
temperatures will be pleasant with upper 60`s to mid 70`s expected.
Forecast looks good with no changes needed at this time.
The NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry located in the
central Atlantic. This storm is expected to strengthen to a
hurricane by Wednesday evening as it tracks west and northwest just
north of the Leeward Islands. Jerry is then expected to track
northward over the weekend toward Bermuda and is expected to stay
well to the east of mainland U.S. with no impacts expected for west
central and southwest Florida. One other area of interest is being
monitored near the Yucatan Peninsula. This area has a low chance
(10%) of development over the next 7 days with no impacts expected
to Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Rain continues to wind down with only a few spotty showers left over
SW FL, so will cover this with VCSH for PGD/FMY/RSW through 02Z,
then rain-free conditions expected overnight. VFR conditions and
east-northeast winds around 5-10 knots will prevail at all terminals
overnight. Some gusty winds up to 18 knots will be possible tomorrow
afternoon after 18Z. Rain chances will be low tomorrow, with only
PGD/FMY/RSW seeing chances high enough to mention, so will cover
this with VCSH from 18-23Z on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Gusty easterly winds will continue reaching Cautionary levels
through Thursday with winds around 15-20 knots expected and seas
around 2-4 feet. Winds increase northeast to around 20 knots late
Thursday and into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves through
the area producing a tight pressure gradient. A Small Craft Advisory
may be needed for the latter part of the week and continuing through
Saturday. Lower rain and storm chances expected through the period
with the highest chances over the southern gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  91  76  90 /  10  10   0  20
FMY  74  90  75  88 /  20  40  10  60
GIF  72  90  74  88 /   0  10  10  30
SRQ  73  90  74  90 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  68  90  70  88 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  75  89  76  87 /  10  10   0  20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion