South Hackensack, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

172
FXUS61 KOKX 271837
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
237 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure moves east of the Delmarva tonight and moves
well east of the area during Sunday as a weakening cold front
approaches from the northwest. High pressure builds in next
week while low pressure remains well south and southeast of the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak low over eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
tracks north and east along the eastern periphery of a weak
upper trough along the east coast tonight. The upper trough
moves slowly eastward while weakening through tonight. The
surface low will move far enough north to bring precipitation,
mainly across the southern sections, to the region this evening
into tonight, and depending on how quickly the low moves east
with the upper trough, ending before dawn Sunday. There is a
chance that a few showers remain very early Sunday morning
across the far eastern areas, the Twin Forks of Long Island and
over the ocean. Generally followed the NBM, with a NBM and CAMs
blend for the probabilities of precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough weakens significantly early Sunday with the
flow become predominately westerly into Monday night as weak
upper ridging builds. A weakening surface cold front approaches
during Sunday and likely dissipates Sunday evening before
passing through. High pressure then dominates into Monday
night. Overnight lows, and daytime highs will remain 5 to near
10 degrees above normal through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 1030s Canadian high will build SE after a dry cold frontal
passage Tue night. At first, there will be solid NE flow locked
in with the center of the high over Ontario/Quebec and Hurricane
Humberto passing well to the SE over the open Atlantic. Winds
could gust to 25-30 mph on Wed, all associated strictly with the
pressure gradient between the two systems and not with an
expanding core of winds with the hurricane as was the case with
Erin back in August. As the high reaches the area by the end of
the week, winds will go light.
Above normal temps Tue/Tue night will fall to near normal on
Wed, and a few degrees below normal on Thu with highs only in
the 60s. Lows Thu night could be some of the coolest this far
this season, with lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s well inland
and near 50 in NYC. (At Central Park, the fcst high of 64 on Thu
would be the coolest since June 15th, and the fcst low of 51
Thu night the coolest since June 1st). Temps should then rebound
to near normal on Fri and a few degrees above normal on Sat.
For specific observational and forecast information regarding
Humberto and newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, see the
latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of low pressure over the Mid Atlantic states will track
northeast, passing south and east of LI late tonight into Sunday
morning.
Expect a mainly VFR forecast with brief MVFR conditions
possible overnight in pockets of light rain. The best chance for
rain will be at the coastal terminals. Patchy fog is also a
possible toward daybreak, but also should be brief.
S/SE winds less than 10 kt through this evening will become
light and variable or light NE late tonight. Winds will then
become SW-WSW at less than 10 kt on Sunday. A late morning/afternoon
seabreeze is likely at some terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR possible overnight in mainly light rain.
Winds on Sunday could be more westerly at times.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon -Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE gusts around 20-25 kt possible.
highest wind gusts will be at the coastal terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters through the day Monday. SCA cond are likely from Monday
night through Thu on the ocean, first via building swell from
Humberto, then with gradient flow between Humberto and strong
inland high pressure from late Tue night into Thu morning. Max
swells look to peak in the 7-10 ft range on Wed, with some
occasional higher swells over 10 ft. Winds may also gusts up to
25 kt on the south shore bays and the ern Sound/bays on Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a continuous NE flow during mid week along with large
swells from Humberto from Tue through Thu, total water levels
and surf will both be on the increase. Coastal flooding appears
unlikely as we will be in between moon phases, but high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and some minor oceanfront beach
flooding/erosion may be possible Wed/Thu.
There is a low rip current risk through Sunday with waves
around 2 ft and light wind.
The last regular surf zone forecast for the season will be
issued early Sunday morning the 28th. Forecasts will resume on
Thursday, May 21, 2026, before the next Memorial Day weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion