South Lake Wales Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KTBW 130523
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
123 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- There will be periods of gusty winds along the coast each
   evening from near sunset to around midnight that will cause
   seas to increase by a foot or so.
- Little to no precipitation expected through the work week as
   high pressure builds into the region.
- The next storm system arrives in about a week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Florida remains underneath an upper-level trough axis as a
Nor`Easter moves up the east coast. Ridging is building back in from
the west, with surface high pressure taking control. In response to
these features, a northerly flow continues to pull significantly
drier and more pleasant air across the state. This is evidenced by
the 0Z sounding PWAT of only 0.93 inches.
High pressure will dominate through the week as the low moves up the
east coast. However, a weak perturbation moving through on the
back side of the storm system does look to move through the region
mid-week. This favors another front moving through to largely
maintain the status quo. That being said, there will be about a
10% chance for a shower across the interior as this system moves
through. While not necessarily being explicitly forecast at this
time, this weak system could bring a few more clouds to the area
as it passes for a brief period. Winds will increase by maybe 5
mph or so as well. Overall, though, impacts will be minimal.
Gradual warming takes place through the weak, but will become more
noticeable as the weekend approaches. This will be due to increasing
humidity as the winds veer to an ESE direction behind the secondary
front late in the week. As the upper-level flow becomes meridional,
this will push the ridge axis east. Eventually, another trough axis
and an attendant cold front are expected to approach the area.
Compared to this time yesterday, the eastward progression of this
system has slowed. However, early next week, it looks like the next
storm system will be on our doorstep to bring change to the forecast
once more. Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions to return,
along with a chance for at least isolated storms, before this next
system moves through. For now, though, enjoy the quiet start to the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
No significant aviation concerns through at least mid-weel as VFR
prevails. The flow will generally favor ENE winds, but a NNW flow
is favored this afternoon near the coast for a few hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
With lighter winds, seas are expected to generally be lighter during
the day as well through the middle of the week. However, mariners
should expect a six hour period each evening beginning around sunset
where winds will increase, pushing up seas by about a foot or so. By
mid-week, winds will again increase slightly, pushing seas higher
again. However, rain-free conditions will last until the weekend at
least.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A drier airmass has settled across the peninsula, favoring RH values
bottoming out around in the mid-40s today and near-critical RH
values tomorrow. However, winds remain light enough to preclude any
red flag concerns at this time. Moisture will again start to
increase mid-week as the flow transitions from the more northerly
flow today and tomorrow to more of a easterly and eventually
southeasterly flow late in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  88  67  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  85  65  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  85  66  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  83  70  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion