South Lake Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

480
FXUS65 KBOI 142041
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
241 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...An upper low
centered along the central California coast will lift northeast
tonight into Wednesday. Showers will move north into southwest
Idaho and far southeast Oregon as the low approaches. Another
band of showers, similar to but slightly more developed than this
morning`s precipitation, is expected to develop across
southwest Idaho late tonight into Wednesday along a shortwave
rotating around the low. This band may bring moderate
precipitation totals up to 0.25 to 0.50 inch, with slightly
higher totals possible in the mountains. The band is most likely
to develop between Twin Falls and Boise, but some hi-res models
bring it as far west as the Boise metro Wednesday morning.
Precipitation will become more showery in the afternoon and
focused in the Magic Valley and central Idaho mountains, with a
10-20% chance of thunderstorms also developing. Snow levels
will remain high through the event, generally 6500 to 8000 feet
MSL, limiting accumulating snow to the highest peaks. It will
remain cool and breezy as the low moves through.
Precipitation will end from west to east Wednesday night. A cool
air mass in place will allow low temperatures to dip into the
30s in the lower valleys, resulting in potential for frost.
However, steady northwest winds overnight will limit this
potential except in more sheltered areas. Cool and dry
northwest flow on Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies, breezy
afternoon winds (locally gusts to around 30 mph southeast of
Boise), and slightly below normal temperatures.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...High pressure building in the
North Pacific keeps general northwesterly flow across the region
through early Sunday. This will keep temperatures seasonal, skies
partly cloudy, and a slight chance of precip mostly north of our
forecast area Friday evening. Models continue to be uncertain about
a potential deep trough on Sunday, with not much change from the
midnight shift`s forecast. The GFS/EC deterministic and roughly half
of ensemble members show a deep wet trough dig into the region
Sunday evening. This would drop temps to 10 degrees below normal
Monday and Tuesday and bring 40-60% chance of precip to most of the
area. It would also drop snow levels to 4-5 kft MSL with a few
inches of snow possible in Central Idaho ridges. However, the other
half of GFS/EC ensemble members and the deterministic Canadian keep
the trough very flat, which would still bring some moisture, but
limit the precip amounts and potential temp drop off. The
disagreement among models is still significant, but give the
deterministic GFS and EC agreement I slightly favored the cooler and
wetter forecast in this afternoon`s package.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR in low stratus that has lingered much longer
than expected, dissipation is evident on Satellite, so TAFs have
been updated to account for this. Generally VFR this afternoon and
evening with isolated showers. A slight chance of thunder in Central
Idaho this afternoon and evening, before another band of light-
moderate showers move in tonight. Snow levels rise are rising to 7-8
kft MSL. IFR-VLIFR in patchy valley fog tomorrow morning. Surface
winds: variable becoming W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW
5-15 kt.
KBOI...MVFR-IFR in dissipating stratus this afternoon. Rain showers
to the southeast just move into the area tomorrow morning, with a
50% chance of rain at the airport. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt with
some variability tonight.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion