South Otselic New York Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS61 KBGM 131035
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers linger today before drying out from west to east
later this afternoon and evening. Cooler and dry weather returns
Tuesday into Thursday before a warm up into this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain has struggled to move west early this morning, with water
vapor imagery showing a bit of a dry slot working its way into
NEPA and CNY. As the coastal low deepens this morning into the
early afternoon, the coastal low should become more dominant and
the weaker upper level low over N central PA will have its dry
slot saturate. With the shorter window of rainfall, QPF amounts
today have been lowered so most areas will see closer to a
quarter inch of rain with only pockets of half inch to an inch
on the east facing slopes of the Poconos.
Tonight into tomorrow, the coastal low will kick out to sea
with drier NW flow developing into Tuesday. In some of the high
res models, there is a subtle 500 mb shortwave that is showing
up Tuesday afternoon but with the lack of moisture in the low
levels, it will be tough to get any precipitation out of it.
Likely a brief increase in cloud cover along with falling
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the Northeast between a large central US ridge and a deep
trough off the New England coast, strong NW flow and subsidence
keeps us dry through the mid week. Surface high pressure in
place under mostly clear skies will lead to chances of frost and
freezes once again Wednesday night and Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The central US ridge builds into the northeast Friday into
Saturday though begins to flatten out as flow tries to become
more zonal. The end of the weekend into early next week is
starting to look a bit more active as a trough ejects into
plains out of the intermountain west and an expansive surface
high sets up off the SE US coast towards Bermuda. This opens up
southerly flow out of the gulf into the central US and up into
the northeast so any shortwave or surface low that develops
ahead of the trough will have plenty of moisture to work with.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low along the coast will slowly move northward today and bring
widespread rain showers to the region. AVP, BGM, and ELM have
fallen into MVFR/Fuel Alt while ITH, SYR, and RME will hang onto
VFR for a little bit longer before ceiling restrictions impact
those terminals as well. IFR is expected this evening and
tonight at all terminals except SYR and RME. In addition to
ceiling restrictions, visibilities will be reduced at times as
showers pass over terminals. Little improvement is expected by
the end of the TAF period despite rain/drizzle coming to an end
overnight.
Northeasterly winds will be quite breezy today with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts and gusts 15 to 20 kts. Slightly higher
gusts may be observed at AVP. Gusts will subside this evening
and winds become calmer tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog each
morning.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion