South Rockwood Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

687
FXUS63 KDTX 112314
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
714 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated light showers remain possible across the Thumb through
the evening, otherwise dry weather prevails through the
remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
- Modest warming trend into the early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Closed low pressure system has provided enough moisture below 6.0
kft agl to result in BKN VFR cloud across Southeast Michigan this
evening. Backing of the circulation per satellite trends supports
keeping cloud in the tafs for the duration of tonight. There is
question of whether or not MVFR ceilings will develop as the base of
the inversion is forecasted to lower overnight. With easterly flow
and relative warm waters of the Great Lakes, preference is to
maintain a MVFR ceiling. Inherited tafs included a IFR br/fg around
daybreak and based on time of year/climo considerations did keep
that as well. Morning fog is expected to burn off/mix out rapidly
with the daylight and carried MVFR ceilings.
For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms through the taf period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Medium for ceilings below 5000 ft agl after 09z. Low for any
  visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings 300 ft agl at daybreak Sunday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
DISCUSSION...
Conditions late this afternoon governed by deeper layer northerly
flow, as the area remains within the broader influence of a 561 dm
closed mid level circulation now fixated over western lake Ontario.
This lends to a classic fall environment, with daytime heating into
ongoing the cold air advective process and lake moisture flux
maintaining a broad diurnal stratocu field with temps peaking near
average in the low to mid 60s. Established diurnally steeper diurnal
lapse rates will maintain the possibility for a few widely scattered
showers to manifest through the evening hours, before larger scale
drying gains traction as low level flow becomes easterly. Assuming a
nocturnal period of open sky, a signal does exist for some areas of
fog or very low stratus to develop late tonight. Lower confidence on
both possible scale and magnitude, but will introduce a patchy fog
mention at this stage. Sunday morning low temperatures arriving
broadly within the 40s range.
Seasonable conditions entrenched to finish the weekend period. Low
level thermal troughing maintains residence through the daylight
period Sunday, while prevailing low level flow holds out of the east-
southeast. This will keep any moderation of the resident thermal
profile limited, despite greater insolation potential and some
improvement in the upper height field as the closed low vacates the
region. A brief influx of higher theta-e air arrives toward evening
or overnight. Little evidence to suggest a greater potential for
shower production should this advective process prove higher
quality, but worth acknowledging that colder/convergent flow remains
across western lake Erie which could offer a window for better lake
moisture flux.
Generally benign weather conditions early next week, as influence of
high pressure now centered to the east maintains dry and stable
conditions within the background of large scale upper ridging.
Despite an incremental increase in geopotential heights as the
larger scale pattern undergoes greater amplification, lack of
meaningful low level thermal advection will simply translate into a
modest warming trend. Readings arriving a shade above average - high
temperatures projected within the mid 60s to lower 70s range both
Monday and Tuesday. More meaningful height falls emerging across the
northern great lakes will draw a weakening front across the region
Tuesday. Little support exists to generate a real opportunity for
shower production. Noted drop in temperatures in the wake,
effectively shifting readings back to below average for the latter
half of the week.
MARINE...
Low pressure centered over Toronto fully peels away from the central
Great Lakes by late evening. Weak ridging then takes its place to
close out the weekend into Monday. While this promotes drier
weather, the local gradient never fully relaxes resulting in
persistent modest (10-20kt) east-southeast winds for the timeframe.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KDK
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion