South Washington Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS63 KIND 110537
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
137 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions likely through the next 7 days, low rain chances
  Monday into Tuesday
- Seasonable temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows
  in the mid 40s to low 50s
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Today.
Dry weather is expected for today with models continuing to shift
the track of a southward diving low pressure system further east
into the Eastern Great Lakes. This more eastern track will help to
enhance the northerly flow aloft and continue to advect cooler air
into central Indiana. This low will then make an eastward turn late
today with little to no additional impacts locally. Skies will be
partly cloudy through much of the day with model soundings showing
some residual saturation aloft associated with the aforementioned
low along with developing diurnal cu closer to the surface. Cloud
cover combined with the weak CAA will help keep temperatures
seasonable today with expected highs in the low 70s.
Tonight.
Another chilly night is expected for tonight with diurnally driven
cu dissipating towards sunset leaving clear skies and near calm
winds. Lows should drop into the low to mid 40s, but some localized
cool spots may see upper 30s. This should be warm enough even in the
most favored locations to prevent any frost formation, but will
continue to monitor the dew points through the day today as there is
a very low-end potential that mixing out of moisture today could
leave a dry enough surface tonight to allow for temperatures to end
up on the colder end of model guidance. Patchy fog is also possible
towards daybreak with the potential for both shallow field fog and
localized fog along streams.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Sunday Through Tuesday.
Similar conditions are expected for the second half of the weekend
with mostly clear skies Sunday and temperatures again rising into
the low to mid 70s. Diurnal cu coverage will be lower with models
showing little to no saturation at the top of the boundary layer.
Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday will again be in the mid to
upper 40s with a gradual warming trend into early next week. A weak
upper level low will move through Southern Canada Monday into
Tuesday with a cold front stretching southward, but confidence is
high that the front stalls and dissipates well to the northwest of
Indiana keeping rain chances to essentially zero.
Wednesday Through Friday.
A weak shortwave moving northeast out of the Four Corners region
brings the best chance for precipitation this week as it moves into
the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. This system will be moisture
starved, but there is a low-end potential that a few light showers
could be squeezed out over the Ohio Valley as it interacts with
another southward diving Canadian low. Chances for rain look to be 20
percent or less as this scenario requires precise timing and forcing
strong enough to squeeze out what little moisture is available.
Temperatures will remain seasonable through the remainder of the
week with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low
50s.
Looking into the weekend and beyond, southerly flow looks to return
Saturday ahead of a seasonably strong low pressure system that looks
likely early into the following week which brings much better
chances for precipitation to central Indiana along with gusty
gradient winds. Details remain highly uncertain at this time, but
will need to be monitored over the next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mid-level clouds
continuing to slowly move through the state. Diurnal cu is expected
to develop towards the afternoon before clearing after sunset. Winds
will be light and variable through the day with a predominately
southwesterly direction through daybreak and then northerly
direction through the day.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion