Southampton Township, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS61 KPHI 081505
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes this morning
will shift eastward this afternoon into tonight and become centered
more into New England. An area low pressure off the Southeast U.S.
coast tracks north and northeastward Tuesday through Wednesday. A
weak cold front may cross the area later Thursday, then high
pressure builds in from the north Friday through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few gusts from northeast winds around 15-20 mph today. Higher
waves being reported at the beaches today. Rip current risk was
upgraded to a HIGH risk for Monday. See Rip Current section
below for more information. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.
High pressure over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will
build to the northeast today and will be centered over northern
New England and eastern Canada tonight with the base of the high
stretching down into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region today
with dew points lowering into the 40s throughout. Highs today
will be below seasonal averages for this time of year and will
top off in the lower 70s under sunny skies.
Clear skies tonight with light east to northeast winds. Lows
should mostly be in the upper 40s to low 50s, except near 60
along the coasts due to being in the proximity of the warmer
ocean waters. There is the potential for some cooler
temperatures in areas away from the urban centers due to
radiational cooling, but temperatures should not be cool enough
for patchy frost to develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts into northern New England through Tuesday.
Although the center of the high will depart Tuesday night, the
base of that high will extend down into the Mid-Atlantic. Low
pressure develops off the Southeast U.S. coast Tuesday night.
In terms of sensible weather, dry through the day Tuesday.
Clouds increase on Tuesday as moisture starts to increase
northward, and high temperatures look a little bit warmer than
Monday especially inland. The pressure gradient starts to
tighten Tuesday and especially Tuesday night between high
pressure to our north and northeast and developing low pressure
to our south. This will result in a northeasterly breeze with
this being most notable closer to the to coast where it will
also become gusty.
Some showers offshore Tuesday night ahead of low pressure off
the Southeast U.S. coast may drift westward into our coastal
areas. Some guidance hinting at some enhanced low-level
convergence along the coast that may assist in the shower
development. Low temperatures generally in the upper 40s to low
50s, however in the mid to upper 50s (possibly even in the low
60s) in Delmarva and along the Jersey Shore.
As we go through Wednesday, an upper-level trough is across the
Great Lakes region while a lead shortwave exits off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. The latter drives surface low pressure offshore
and this feature should move farther away from our area during
the day Wednesday. Some guidance continues to show some shower
activity at least into our coastal zones for a while given the
northeasterly low- level flow potentially holding onto some
convergence. At this point, PoPs are on the lower side (20-30
percent mainly east of the NJ Turnpike). A gusty northeasterly
breeze will continue mainly along the coast given much less
friction off the open ocean waters, with the winds then
diminishing at night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Cloud
cover should dominate from about the I-95 corridor on south and
eastward. Temperatures running below average during the day,
with highs in the low to perhaps mid 70s (highest farther
inland).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Temperatures mainly at or a little below average,
along with dry conditions forecast.
Synoptic Overview...A mainly weak upper-level trough axis is
forecast to swing across our region late in the week and into
the start of the weekend. A strong shortwave may result in a
closed low developing across the Great Lakes over the weekend as
it slowly shifts east and southeastward. At the surface, a weak
cold front may cross our area later Thursday followed by high
pressure building in from the north then northeast and remaining
extended across our area into the weekend.
For Thursday and Friday...An expansive upper-level trough is
forecast to be across much of eastern Canada with a strong
shortwave diving southward from Hudson Bay Friday. A weaker
trough axis aloft is forecast to be crossing the Mid-Atlantic
area Friday, and a weak cold front may cross our area ahead of
this later Thursday. A milder air mass looks to briefly get into
our area Thursday ahead of the aforementioned weak cold front
with high temperatures getting to the upper 70s to low 80s for
much of the area. Some cooling then takes place Friday. A lack
of forcing and moisture with the weak cold front results in no
shower chances at this time.
For Saturday and Sunday...An upper-level trough may amplify
across the Great Lakes as a strong shortwave closes the trough
off. As this occurs, surface high pressure shifts more into the
Canadian Maritimes although a narrow area of it extends down
across our area for most of the weekend. It appears as of now
that the surface high maintains enough control of our weather
over the weekend, and therefore a dry forecast is currently
advertised with this forecast (also with the NBM output).
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR/SKC. NE winds 7 to around 10 kt, except 10 to 15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt at KACY. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. E-NE winds less than 5 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR with some increasing clouds. Northeasterly winds
5-10 knots, however increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to
20 knots at mostly KACY/KMIV.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Generally VFR, however a period
of sub-VFR conditions possible at KMIV/KACY due to low clouds
and some showers. Northeast winds 5-15 knots.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory now in effect for coastal waters from
Manasquan Inlet, NJ to Fenwick Island, DE due to seas 3-5 feet
and gusty northeast winds up to 25 kts. SCA conditions will
persist in these locations overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Northeast winds will gust up to 20 kts around the Delaware Bay
with an occasional gust nearing 25 kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...A pressure gradient tightens with high
pressure to the north and low pressure to our south and then east.
This will increase a northeasterly wind with gusts 25-30 knots at
times along with seas building to 5-6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for all ocean zones through the day Wednesday. Will
include the lower Delaware Bay in the Small Craft Advisory for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening as there looks to be a period of 25-knot
wind gusts especially closer to the mouth of the bay. The winds and
seas diminish for all areas Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
For today, northeast winds 15-20 mph. Breaking waves in the
surf zone of 2-4 feet along with southeasterly swells with
around a 5 second period. Given the increasing onshore winds,
waves, and the Full Moon that occurred yesterday, an upgrade
has been made to a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents at all beaches.
On Tuesday, northeast winds increase some more to 15-20 mph with
some gusts up to 30 mph. This will result in breaking waves in
the surf zone building to 3-5 feet, and with a southeasterly
swell with around a 7 second period and Sunday`s Full Moon,
opted to go with a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents at all beaches. If this risk holds with subsequent
updates, a Rip Current Statement will be needed.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...Gorse/MJL
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo/MJL/MPS

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion