Southern, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS64 KLIX 291852
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
152 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast through midweek with hot afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures.
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase at the back end of the
   work week and into the weekend.
- Winds and seas will increase late this week and weekend leading
   with Cautionary headlines or Small Craft Advisories likely and
   minor coastal flooding possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
And yet another dry warm day across the region. Multiple locations
were already in the lower 90s before 18z and temps will likely climb
another degree or two over most of the area. Looking at the morning
sndg only real clouds to contend with will be cu generally between
4500 and 9k ft.
Another warm and dry day expected tomorrow as we still see ridging
aloft for one more day. Temperatures will likely be similar tomorrow
with upper 80s and mostly lower 90s. The one possible hiccup again
would be if we get some thicker cirrus into the region. This can be
seen across western TX associated with the subtropical jet and the
s/w that will move through the southern Plains and into the Lower MS
Valley tomorrow afternoon. If that thicker cloud cover can get here
it will impact highs a little. We should have at least one more day
without any threat of rain as the ridging will still dominate the
region most of the day. In addition there is no real surge of
moisture either. Hghts do begin to fall slightly late Tuesday but
the bulk of the drop won`t occur until overnight and into
Wednesday. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The pattern for the 2nd half of the work week and into the
weekend is, well difficult we will say. We have been mentioning it
for the last few days and chaotic is probably the best way to
describe it. The combination of both Imelda and Humberto along
with the piece of energy that got left behind from our trough
Friday over the southeastern CONUS is having a field day with the
forecast. Confidence in portions of the extended forecast are low
and that pertain mainly to rain chances as small deviations will
make the difference between possibly remaining dry the entire
forecast or seeing at least some rain at times. With that we will
continue to stick with the latest NBM.
Imelda and Humberto are no issues for our area however with Imelda
likely beginning to turn hard to the northeast and then east-
northeast tomorrow afternoon/night the left over piece of our
disturbance over the southeastern CONUS may not move as far
southwest as previously thought. With that the other disturbance
that is currently over the TX/OK panhandle and moving into the
southern Plains will likely push farther east before finally merging
with it. over the last day or so that looked like it may occur
directly over the CWA and northern Gulf now it could be just a tad
farther east. The s/w to our west would then move through the area
while we are still lacking the moisture to get any rain to develop.
As the two merge Wednesday moisture will still be east of the area
but will try to slowly work into the region from the east-northeast.
This may get some isolated storms over the east Wednesday but we are
likely looking at Thursday now for isolate to scattered convection
and most of it remaining closer towards the coast.
As we head into the weekend there is a lot unknowns with respect to
the pattern but we may see a closed low slowly take shape and slide
over the region. There will also be a much deeper surge of moisture
across the eastern and north-central Gulf into the area associated
with a very weakly defined tropical wave. That may finally bring
more than isolated to widely scattered storms into the area.
One thing to mention that we are watching as well and that could be
some minor coastal flooding Friday and into the weekend. The setup
at the sfc and in the LL may lead to a prolonged period of easterly
winds. A very strong and broad area of high pressure will be centered
well northeast of the area while weak and broad low pressure is over
the southwestern Gulf. This will lead to a tightening of the
pressure gradient with moderate to strong easterly winds beginning
to set up over coastal waters Thursday and then strong easterly
winds persisting through at least Saturday if not longer. The
astronomical tide will still be on the higher end but will begin to
slack off into the weekend. However, with multiple days of easterly
winds blowing across the entire northeastern and north-central Gulf
the water will begin to pile up and with the shape of the Louisiana
coast (actually beginning with Hancock county, MS) the water will
have no where to go and get trapped. This could lead to some minor
coastal flooding in the tidal lakes, east facing showers of Orleans,
St Bernard, and Plaquemines parishes and around the Waveland/Bay
St Louis area of Hancock county, MS. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Rather benign conditions will continue through the forecast as as
terminals will remain in VFR status. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Offshore flow will continue as weak low pressure slowly works
towards the southwestern Gulf. This will continue to produce light
to moderate offshore flow over the next few days. Overall, not
anticipating a lot of impacts through midweek, but a few showers and
thunderstorms may begin to develop over the coastal waters Tuesday
and Wednesday. Winds, seas/waves, and rain chances will begin to
increase late in the week. Headlines will likely be needed and could
be needed as early as Thursday night. With broad high pressure
centered across the northeast and mid Atlantic and wedging southwest
towards the Gulf coast and weak low pressure over the Bay of
Campeche the pressure gradient will tighten and strong easterly
winds could set up across the northern Gulf for multiple days.
/CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  69  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  66  90  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  73  91  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  70  90  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  66  91  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion