Spanish Flat, California Weather Forecast Discussion

677
FXUS66 KMTR 012100
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Light beneficial rain at times through Thursday.
- Warming and drying trend Friday and Saturday with gusty
   northwest winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
(This evening through Thursday)
A deep low pressure system, currently centered just west of
Vancouver Island will move little through Thursday, before quickly
dipping southward and through northern California Friday into
Saturday. A band or two of light showers will move through the
region through Thursday, with minimal impacts. The one caevat
being in unlikely but non-zero chance of a thunderstorm or two,
especially on the back edge of either band, which could result in
a brief heavy downpour or gusty winds. Cooler air behind these
fronts will bring a slight cooling trend each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Northwest winds will accelerate quickly Friday and Saturday as the
frontal bands move through and the core of the low approaches. A
few Wind Advisories may be needed. The cooling trend will
continue.
Meanwhile higher surface pressure will build over the northern
Rockies through the weekend. The gradient across the pressure
field will support some northerly, offshore wind from Saturday -
Monday. Typically these winds pose a fire weather concern.
Fortunately the antecedent conditions and wind strength are
mitigating factors. The PGE-WRF ensemble shows the SFO-WMC
gradient bottoming out around -2 to -6 mb. Enough for offshore
winds, but not a particularly strong event.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Low to moderate confidence in the fcst due to uncertainties in
timing of flight cats. Mix of VFR/MVFR cigs through this evening
then mix of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys tonight into Thu morning. Scattered
showers will prevail across the region into Thu morning. Winds will
increase this morning from a southerly direction, shifting to the
west and northwest as the cold front passes through the region this
afternoon into the evening.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR cigs expected through about 21Z today then
cigs lowering to MVFR for much of the remainder of the fcst period,
except VFR cigs this evening. Winds from the south will turn to the
west as the front passes through later today. Chances for showers
taper off Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR cigs through this afternoon then
lowering to MVFR this evening and a 50% chance of IFR cigs Thu
morning. Chances for showers begin this afternoon and evening with
low to moderate probabilities (20-30%) that showers will directly
impact MRY or SNS. Winds begin to increase from a south to southeast
direction before shifting to the west and northwest this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Small Craft Advisory level northwesterly seas around 10 feet will
continue into Thursday morning. Northwest winds will increase
quickly Thursday afternoon through Friday with steep seas. Local
Gales are possible, especially south of Monterey. Light off and on
again showers are possible into Thursday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....RK/Flynn
AVIATION...JS
MARINE...RK
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion