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Sperry, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS64 KTSA 061750
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

- Low rain and storm chances from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas Monday afternoon to early evening.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday night into Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return late week through the weekend.

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.SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of early this afternoon, a weak frontal boundary was positioned from the Texas Panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and eastern Kansas up northeast into the Great Lakes region. Along this boundary scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing within an area of warm advection and deeper mid level moisture. At the same time, an area of low pressure was lifting north/northeast from southern Arkansas with scattered rain showers on the northern/eastern side of the disturbance. Between these two features, increasing cloud cover was observed across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with temps warming above the seasonal average.

Through this evening, the weak frontal boundary is expected to slowly sag southeast nearing the CWA, while the area of low pressure continues its track off to the northeast. Before the disturbance begins to push away from the region, there remains low chances for isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to spread into northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma. Mid to late evening, the low should be moving into eastern Arkansas, and as such precip chances for the eastern half of the CWA should taper off. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Overnight tonight, a shortwave currently over the Rocky Mountains is progged to move eastward out into the Plains and help push the weak frontal boundary into the CWA. A slight chance of rain/storms develops along and near the Oklahoma Kansas border tonight and remains forecast into Tuesday morning with the boundary moving southeast through the region. Ahead of the boundary tonight, increasing low level moisture and light winds will aid in the potential for fog development across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Meanwhile, behind the boundary, breezy northerly winds and widespread cloud cover are expected to spread across northeast Oklahoma. Low temperatures tonight in the upper 50s to upper 60s from north to south are forecast.

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.LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The weak boundary moves through the CWA during the day Tuesday with northerly winds spreading over the region. Will hold onto a slight chance of showers/storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning before the mid level shortwave exits the Plains. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and cooler conditions are anticipated across the northern half of the CWA. Across the southern half of the CWA, a slight chance of rain/isolated storms remains Tuesday afternoon, though latest indications continue to trend a weaker signal for afternoon precip across the CWA. High temperatures Tuesday will be tricky with the cloud cover and the movement of the boundary. For this forecast highs around 70 deg near the Kansas border to the mid 80s near the Red River look probable.

The cooler conditions and east/northeast winds are forecast to continue Wednesday while the region remains in a nearly zonal mid/upper level flow. However, these conditions look to be short lived as latest model solutions continue to reestablish the ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains Thursday through the weekend. Model solutions have trended back toward eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas being more underneath the ridge compared to yesterday where the CWA was on the eastern periphery. Thus, any shortwave engorge rounding the top of the ridge Friday now looks to remain to the northeast of the CWA. These conditions will allow for a warming trend to develop Thursday with above seasonal average temperatures returning through the weekend. At this time, forecast high temperatures are mid 80s to near 90 deg with lows in the 50s/60s. Late weekend, breezy southerly winds develop ahead of another shortwave looking to move into the Plains. These winds and the warm temperatures could increase fire weather dangers for parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.

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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and into the evening hours for all sites, with the exception of a chance at a shower or thunderstorm across western Arkansas sites through 00Z. A shallow cold front will move through the region form north to south overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing a shift to northerly winds with some gusts around 20 knots possible for several hours behind the front. Additionally low clouds will filter in behind the front, especially from near I-40 north. MVFR ceilings are likely with some IFR cigs possible across NW AR sites or along the OK/KS border. Before the front arrives, some patchy fog will also be possible across NW AR sites with any fog clearing up after passage of the front and an increase in wind speeds.

Bowlan

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 75 56 77 / 10 20 0 0 FSM 68 83 62 82 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 63 81 59 82 / 10 10 10 0 BVO 57 71 51 75 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 62 79 55 77 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 64 77 56 74 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 64 78 59 80 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 60 72 53 76 / 10 20 0 0 F10 62 78 57 80 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 66 86 64 82 / 10 20 10 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion

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